#49 overall · DEN · 147.9 projected half-PPR pts · +20.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 81.6
J.K. Dobbins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dobbins put together his best full-season showing in 2024, carrying the ball 195 times for 905 yards and nine rushing touchdowns while adding 32 receptions for 153 yards through the air. That receiving line matters: 38 targets and a 84% catch rate signal a real role in the passing game, not just a token one. The 2025 season was quieter across the board, with 153 carries, 772 rushing yards, and four touchdowns, but the workload remained substantial. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 118.7 rush attempts, 566.3 rushing yards, 15 receptions, and 4.7 rushing touchdowns per year. The 2024 peak is the ceiling proof; the three-year average is the floor context. He lands at RB24 with a positive draft value of +20.4, meaning the projection sits above replacement level at the position. Tier 8 is where the model places him across all positions combined.
What the model projects
The projection is 147.9 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. Dobbins ranks #49 overall and RB24 by draft value. His bye week is Week 10. The median simulated season lands at 155.9 points, which sits close to but slightly above the 147.9 point estimate. Both numbers tell a consistent story: a low-end starter or high-end flex contributor in a 12-team half-PPR league.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 195 | 905 | 9 | 38 | 32 | 153 | 175.8 |
| 2025 | 153 | 772 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 37 | 110.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 118.7 | 566.3 | 4.7 | 18.3 | 15 | 68.3 | 99.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the defining feature of Dobbins as a fantasy asset. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces just 58.0 points, a number that would make him a roster liability. The 25th percentile comes in at 102.8 points, still below the kind of production that justifies a starting spot most weeks. The median sits at 155.9. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 202.9 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons hits 240.1. That 182-point spread between p10 and p90 reflects genuine variance in how his season could unfold. Drafters who land the upper half of that band get a weekly starter; those who land the lower half are managing a problem.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Dobbins at an average pick of 81.6, which works out to pick 7.10 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window you are working with: if you want him, plan to spend a seventh-round pick. His rank is #49 overall and RB24. The wide outcome band means he fits best in a roster construction that can absorb variance, either through depth at running back or through a roster spot that can pivot if the low end of the band materializes. His Week 10 bye is worth noting for lineup planning, particularly if your roster is thin at the position that week.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 195 times for 905 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns, and caught 32 of 38 targets for 153 receiving yards. It was his most productive season in the three-year window covered by the facts.
The projection is 147.9 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season is 155.9 points. He ranks #49 overall and RB24 by draft value, with a positive surplus of +20.4 points above replacement level.
The band runs from 58.0 points at the 10th percentile to 240.1 at the 90th. The bottom quarter of simulated seasons tops out at 102.8 points, which is well below starter-worthy production in most 12-team leagues. The upside is real, but so is the downside.
The market average is pick 81.6, or 7.10 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the round where you would need to spend a pick to secure him based on current public draft data drawn from two platforms.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.