#54 overall · BAL · 274.7 projected half-PPR pts · +13.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 46.2
Lamar Jackson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Lamar Jackson is QB2 in these rankings, and the case starts with what he did in 2024: 4,172 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 915 rushing yards, and 4 rushing scores. That is a dual-threat profile that very few quarterbacks can match on the ground alone, let alone through the air at the same time. The three-year averages reinforce the floor: 3,466.3 passing yards, 28.7 passing touchdowns, and 695 rushing yards per season across 2023-2025. Even in a reduced 2025 campaign, he still posted 2,549 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and 349 rushing yards. The rushing dimension is the structural advantage here. At an average of 118 rush attempts per season over the last three years, Jackson generates fantasy points through a second scoring channel that most quarterbacks simply do not have. His draftValue sits at +13.4, meaning the projection places him above replacement level at the position. He lands in Tier 8 of the overall rankings, ranked #54 overall.
What the model projects
The projection is 274.7 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His bye week is Week 13. The three-year averages across passing yards (3,466.3), passing touchdowns (28.7), rushing yards (695), and rushing touchdowns (3.7) all feed into a profile that the projection treats as a consistent dual-threat producer. The 2024 season sits well above those averages in passing touchdowns (41) and passing yards (4,172), while 2025 came in below them across the board. The 274.7 projection sits between those two data points, closer to the three-year mean than to either extreme.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 457 | 307 | 3678 | 24 | 7 | 148 | 821 | 5 | 10 | 336.2 |
| 2024 | 474 | 316 | 4172 | 41 | 4 | 139 | 915 | 4 | 8 | 432.4 |
| 2025 | 302 | 192 | 2549 | 21 | 7 | 67 | 349 | 2 | 5 | 219.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 411 | 271.7 | 3466.3 | 28.7 | 6 | 118 | 695 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 339.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, and that width is the most important thing to understand before drafting Jackson. The p10 outcome is 118.6 points: a bottom-10% season looks like a significant step back from any of his recent full campaigns. The p25 is 216.6 points, still a meaningful drop from the 274.7 projection. The median simulated season (p50) lands at 274.6 points, essentially matching the point estimate. From there, the upside opens up: the p75 is 331.5 points and the p90 reaches 375.0 points. A top-10% season would represent a career-level output. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 256.4 points, which is a substantial spread. Drafters who want a high floor at quarterback should weigh that p10 carefully. Drafters who are comfortable with variance in exchange for the p90 ceiling will find the upside compelling. The 2024 season (41 passing touchdowns, 915 rushing yards) shows what the top of that band looks like in practice.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Jackson is ranked #54 overall and QB2 in these rankings, sitting in Tier 8. His market ADP is 46.2, which works out to pick 4.10 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the market is currently taking him in the fourth round. Drafters who want him should plan accordingly: if you are not willing to spend a fourth-round pick on a quarterback, you will likely need to look elsewhere at the position. His bye falls in Week 13, which is a common fantasy playoff week, so roster planning around that absence is worth factoring in before draft day.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 274.7 half-PPR fantasy points. His three-year average across 2023-2025 was 3,466.3 passing yards, 28.7 passing touchdowns, 695 rushing yards, and 3.7 rushing touchdowns per season, and the 274.7 figure sits close to that mean.
The p10 simulated outcome is 118.6 points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below that total. The p25 is 216.6 points. The downside band is wide, so drafters should treat the floor as a real risk, not just a theoretical one.
His market ADP is 46.2, which translates to pick 4.10 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, budget a fourth-round pick.
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, Jackson averaged 118 rush attempts and 695 rushing yards per season. The 2024 season produced 915 rushing yards on 139 attempts; 2025 came in at 349 yards on 67 attempts. The three-year average reflects both of those data points, and the rushing dimension is a consistent part of his historical profile.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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