#230 overall · BAL · 58.9 projected half-PPR pts · -56.4 Draft Value
Rashod Bateman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2024 season is the reason Bateman stays on the radar. He posted 756 receiving yards, 45 receptions on 72 targets, and nine receiving touchdowns, a line that demonstrated genuine big-play upside in Baltimore's offense. That touchdown rate was not a fluke of volume; it came on a target share that was meaningful without being dominant, which means the scoring efficiency was real. His three-year averages across 2023-2025 sit at 449 receiving yards, 32 receptions, and 55.3 targets per season, with four receiving touchdowns per year. The 2024 peak shows what the ceiling looks like when things break right. Baltimore's offense has consistently supported receiver production, and Bateman has already demonstrated he can be the beneficiary of it.
What the model projects
The projection is 92.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits below replacement level for the wide receiver position, reflected in a draft value of -36.5. He ranks #170 overall and WR66, placing him in Tier 9. The projection is a point estimate; the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 76.9 points, which is modestly below the point estimate, indicating the distribution pulls upward from the median. Both numbers tell the same story: the baseline expectation is a low-end fantasy contributor at the position.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 56 | 32 | 367 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 60.5 |
| 2024 | 72 | 45 | 756 | 9 | — | — | 152.1 |
| 2025 | 38 | 19 | 224 | 2 | — | — | 43.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 55.3 | 32 | 449 | 4 | 0.3 | 6 | 85.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the most important thing to understand about Bateman as a fantasy asset. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 21.2 points, essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile is 44.0 points, still well below usable fantasy production. The median sits at 76.9 points. Move to the optimistic side and the picture changes sharply: the 75th percentile reaches 112.8 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons hit 163.0 points. That 163.0 figure is a legitimate fantasy contributor number. The gap between the p25 and p90 outcomes is enormous, which means the player you get depends heavily on which version of Bateman shows up. His 2024 season (nine touchdowns) and his 2025 season (two touchdowns, 224 yards) bracket exactly that range in real life.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Bateman's market ADP is 420.5, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 35.12 in a 12-team draft. That is deep in the territory where drafters are filling out the back end of rosters and taking shots on upside. His bye is Week 13. At that draft slot, the ask is minimal in terms of draft capital, and the 2024 season provides a concrete data point for what the upside looks like. The projection and rank reflect a player who is below replacement level on a baseline expectation, so he belongs in the final rounds of a draft as a high-variance stash rather than a player counted on for weekly production. If the 2024 version of Bateman re-emerges, the late-round cost will look like nothing. If the 2025 version is the baseline, the downside is already priced into where he goes.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 92.2 points and a draft value of -36.5 confirm he is below replacement level on a baseline expectation. However, his market ADP of 420.5 (pick 35.12 in a 12-team draft) means the cost is at the very back end of a draft. At that price, the 2024 season (756 yards, nine touchdowns) represents a real upside scenario, and the p90 outcome of 163.0 points shows the model's simulations include a meaningful high-end result.
His three seasons from 2023 to 2025 show significant variance. In 2023 he posted 367 receiving yards, 32 receptions, and one touchdown on 56 targets. In 2024 he jumped to 756 yards, 45 receptions, and nine touchdowns on 72 targets. In 2025 he fell back to 224 yards, 19 receptions, and two touchdowns on 38 targets. The three-year averages (449 yards, 32 receptions, 55.3 targets, four touchdowns) are pulled heavily by the 2024 outlier season.
The floor is low. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 21.2 points, and the 25th percentile is 44.0 points. A drafter should enter the season prepared for the possibility that Bateman contributes very little, which is consistent with his 2025 stat line of 224 yards and two touchdowns.
His market ADP is 420.5, which works out to pick 35.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is based on data from two platforms. He is not being drafted until the very late rounds, so there is no urgency to reach for him earlier in the draft.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.