Jacksonville Jaguars — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The 2025 season was Jacksonville's best defensive showing of the three-year window in the books. The unit posted 22 interceptions, 11 forced fumbles, 9 fumble recoveries, 4 touchdowns, and a safety, while holding opponents to 336 points against — the lowest single-season total across 2023, 2024, and 2025. The turnover production in particular stands out: 22 interceptions is a sharp jump from the 16 logged in 2023 and the 6 in 2024. If that interception rate holds anywhere near its 2025 level, the fantasy scoring floor rises meaningfully. The three-year averages — 35.3 sacks, 14.7 interceptions, 9.3 forced fumbles, 7.7 fumble recoveries, 2.3 touchdowns per season — describe a unit that has consistently generated pressure and takeaways even in its down years.

What the model projects

The projection is 116.3 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Jacksonville's draft value is -29.5, placing the unit #150 overall and DST16 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The unit's bye week falls in Week 7, which is worth noting for roster planning.

The range of outcomes

The historical record shows how wide the variance can be for this unit. Points allowed swung from 371 in 2023 to 435 in 2024 and back down to 336 in 2025. Sacks ranged from 32 to 40 across the same span. Interceptions are the most volatile line: 16, then 6, then 22 in consecutive seasons. On the favorable end, a repeat of 2025-level turnover production — 22 interceptions, 11 forced fumbles, 4 touchdowns — would push fantasy scoring well above the 116.3 projection. On the unfavorable end, a regression toward the 2024 profile (6 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, 435 points against) would land the unit well short of it. The gap between those two outcomes is large, and the 2024 season is a recent reminder of how quickly the floor can drop.

How to draft him

Jacksonville does not have a market ADP available, meaning the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to produce one. At DST16 with a -29.5 draft value, this is a late-round or streaming option in most 12-team half-PPR formats. The Week 7 bye is the main scheduling note to keep in mind when deciding how many DSTs to carry on your roster. If you are targeting Jacksonville, plan for a streaming replacement in that week.

The projection is 116.3 points with a draft value of -29.5, which puts Jacksonville below replacement level at DST in a 12-team half-PPR format (DST16, #150 overall, Tier 9). There is no market ADP available, meaning the unit is not being consistently drafted across public platforms. That profile fits a streaming approach more than a dedicated early pick.

Across 2023 through 2025, the unit averaged 35.3 sacks, 14.7 interceptions, 9.3 forced fumbles, 7.7 fumble recoveries, and 2.3 touchdowns per season. Points allowed averaged 380.7 per year. The 2025 season was the strongest of the three: 22 interceptions, 11 forced fumbles, 9 fumble recoveries, 4 touchdowns, 1 safety, and 336 points allowed.

Jacksonville's bye falls in Week 7. If you roster them as your primary DST, you will need a streaming option for that week. Given the unit has no market ADP and sits below replacement level in the projection, carrying a second DST or planning a Week 7 waiver pickup is a reasonable approach.

Jacksonville posted 22 interceptions in 2025, up from 16 in 2023 and 6 in 2024. The three-year average is 14.7 per season. The 2024 number shows how sharply the rate can fall; the 2025 number shows how high it can climb. The projection of 116.3 points reflects the full historical range, and the 2024 season serves as a concrete recent floor for what this unit can look like when turnovers dry up.