Kyle Pitts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The 2025 season is the number that anchors everything here. Pitts posted 928 receiving yards, 88 receptions, and 118 targets, all career highs across the three seasons on record. That target volume, 118, is the clearest argument in his favor: it means Atlanta was feeding him the ball at a rate that puts him firmly in the conversation at his position. The three-year averages back the story up without softening it, 732.3 receiving yards, 62.7 receptions, and 94 targets per season, with 4 receiving touchdowns. The 2025 breakout was not a one-year blip on a flat line; it was the top of a curve that has been building. For a drafter who wants a tight end with genuine target share, the recent history gives a real foundation to stand on.

What the model projects

The projection is 116.3 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season, the p50, lands at 126.8 points, a touch above the point estimate. The draft value is -3.4, which places Pitts just below replacement level at his position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #82 overall and TE7 at his position, sitting in Tier 9 of the overall rankings. The projection is a step back from what the 2025 stat line would imply, and the draft value reflects that the position is deep enough that replacement-level production is accessible later in the draft.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Pitts as a fantasy asset. At the pessimistic end, the p10 is 61.1 points, a season that would make him a liability at the position. The p25 sits at 91.4 points, still a below-average outcome. The median is 126.8. Move to the optimistic side and the p75 reaches 149.2 points, with the p90 at 176.7. That top-end number represents a genuinely impactful tight end season. The gap between the p10 and p90 is more than 115 points, which means the range of realistic outcomes is enormous. Drafters who land the upside get a weekly starter; those who land the downside are looking for a replacement by midseason.

How to draft him

The market is drafting Pitts at pick 83.0 on average, which works out to round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. His bye is Week 11, so plan your roster depth accordingly. Given the width of the outcome band, the decision at that pick comes down to how much variance you are willing to absorb at tight end. The upside is real and the 2025 target volume is a legitimate reason to believe in it. The downside is equally real, and the draft value of -3.4 is a reminder that the projection does not assume the best-case scenario.

The outcome band tells the story clearly. The p10 is 61.1 points and the p90 is 176.7, a spread of more than 115 points across simulated seasons. That is a boom-or-bust profile. The median outcome at 126.8 points is serviceable, but the floor is low enough that you need to roster a backup plan.

Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, Pitts averaged 94 targets per year. The 2025 season was the peak at 118 targets, compared to 90 in 2023 and 74 in 2024. The trend moved sharply upward in 2025, which is the primary reason he is in the TE7 conversation.

The market average is pick 83.0, which is round 7, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. If you want Pitts, that is roughly the window where you need to commit a pick. Waiting much longer risks losing him to another roster.

The projection is 116.3 half-PPR points. His 2025 season produced 928 receiving yards, 88 receptions, and 5 touchdowns, a career-best line. The projection sits below what a straight-line read of 2025 would suggest, and the draft value of -3.4 reflects that he projects just under replacement level at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format.