#100 overall · WAS · 100.6 projected half-PPR pts · -9.6 Draft Value
Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's 2025 season is the entirety of his NFL statistical record, and it is a legitimate one. He carried the ball 175 times for 805 rushing yards and scored 8 rushing touchdowns. That is a workload that commands attention at a position where touches are currency. The touchdown rate on that volume is the clearest argument in his favor: 8 scores on 175 attempts is a rate that translates directly into fantasy relevance. Washington's backfield is his home, and the 2025 production is the foundation every drafter is building on.
What the model projects
The projection is 115.0 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 117.8 points, close to that figure. His draft value is -13.4, which places him below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #105 overall and RB32. He sits in Tier 9. His bye week is 7. The receiving profile from 2025 is thin: 13 targets, 9 receptions, 68 receiving yards. That limited pass-game role is baked into the 115.0-point projection.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 175 | 805 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 68 | 3 | 135.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 175 | 805 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 68 | 3 | 139.8 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons finish at 35.5 points, a near-total loss of fantasy value. At the 25th percentile the number is 70.3. The median is 117.8. The 75th percentile reaches 162.6, and the 90th percentile climbs to 205.7. That top-decile outcome is a genuinely useful fantasy season. The spread from p10 to p90 covers 170.2 points, which signals high variance. Drafters are buying a player whose floor is very low and whose ceiling is real but not guaranteed. The fumble history adds to that variance: 3 fumbles and 2 lost in 2025, a rate that can affect playing time in ways the stat line alone does not capture.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 102.9, which works out to pick 9.07 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. That is the pick you spend to secure him. He ranks #105 overall and RB32 in this format. At that draft slot in the ninth round, you are reaching into the high-variance tier of the rankings. The case for spending that pick is the 2025 touchdown production and the carry volume. The case for patience is the negative draft value, the thin receiving role, and a p10 outcome of 35.5 points. He fits best as a handcuff or a high-upside flex in deeper roster builds, not as a player you count on as a weekly starter from day one.
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Questions drafters ask
He ran 175 times for 805 yards and scored 8 rushing touchdowns. In the passing game he saw 13 targets, caught 9 passes, and gained 68 receiving yards. He also fumbled 3 times and lost 2.
The projection is 115.0 half-PPR points. The median simulated season is 117.8. The band runs from 35.5 points at the 10th percentile to 205.7 at the 90th percentile, a spread that reflects meaningful season-to-season variance.
Market ADP is 102.9, or pick 9.07 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. That is the round-9 range where you would need to spend a pick to secure him.
Two stand out from the facts. First, his draft value is -13.4, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. Second, the fumble rate from 2025 (3 fumbles, 2 lost on 175 attempts) is a factor that can affect opportunity, and the p10 outcome of 35.5 points shows how badly a bad season can go.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.