#224 overall · PIT · 60.5 projected half-PPR pts · -55.3 Draft Value
Pat Freiermuth — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Pat Freiermuth's 2024 season is the clearest argument in his favor. He caught 65 of 78 targets for 653 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns, a stat line that shows what his ceiling looks like when volume and red-zone work align. His three-year averages back that up: 46 receptions, 59.7 targets, 482.3 receiving yards, and 4.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2024 peak is not a fluke of a single outlier game; it reflects a player who, in his best season, produced at a meaningful rate for the position. His bye falls on Week 9, which is manageable for roster construction.
What the model projects
The projection is 68.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits him at TE26 and #206 overall, with a draft value of -53.6, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 72.0 points, close to the point estimate. These are the numbers as they stand.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 47 | 32 | 308 | 2 | — | 58.8 |
| 2024 | 78 | 65 | 653 | 7 | 2 | 137.8 |
| 2025 | 54 | 41 | 486 | 4 | — | 93.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 59.7 | 46 | 482.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 97.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. A bottom-10% season lands at 23.6 points; a bottom-25% season reaches only 44.2. The median is 72.0 points. A top-25% season climbs to 95.7, and a top-10% season reaches 127.0. That spread from 23.6 to 127.0 reflects genuine season-to-season variance. The 2023 season, 32 receptions, 308 yards, and 2 touchdowns, and the 2025 season, 41 receptions, 486 yards, and 4 touchdowns, both sit closer to the lower half of that band. The 2024 season, by contrast, maps near the top. A drafter targeting Freiermuth is betting on the upper half of that distribution repeating.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Freiermuth is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost signal to report. At TE26 and #206 overall with a negative draft value, he projects as a depth or streaming option rather than a starter in most 12-team half-PPR leagues. If you are targeting him, the 2024 ceiling of 7 touchdowns on 78 targets is the scenario worth pricing in. The 2023 and 2025 lines are the floor. Know which version you are counting on before you spend a pick.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he caught 65 of 78 targets for 653 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns, also losing 1 fumble on 2 total fumbles. That is his peak across the three seasons on record.
The projection is 68.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His median simulated season is 72.0 points. He ranks TE26 and #206 overall, with a draft value of -53.6.
The band runs from 23.6 points at the 10th percentile to 127.0 at the 90th. A bottom-quarter season is 44.2 points or fewer. The low end is consistent with his 2023 line of 32 receptions, 308 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
No. He is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost data available.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.