#223 overall · SEA · 192.6 projected half-PPR pts · -55.2 Draft Value
Sam Darnold — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2024 season is the argument. Darnold threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns on 545 attempts, adding 212 rushing yards and a rushing score for good measure. That is a legitimate QB1 stat line, and it sits in the recent record. The three-year averages tell a more complicated story: 20.7 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and 2,888 passing yards per season across 2023-2025, with the 2023 sample being a short one. The 2025 season pulled those averages down, with 25 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and 10 fumbles (6 lost). Still, a drafter who believes 2024 is closer to the true talent level than 2025 has a real case to make. The rushing contribution is real, too: 67 attempts and 212 yards in 2024, 35 attempts and 95 yards in 2025, giving him a floor that pure pocket passers cannot match.
What the model projects
The projection is 212.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands him at QB21 and #205 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -45.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 212.5 points is close to his 2025 actual production and well below his 2024 peak. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 191.4 points, which is modestly below the point estimate. Both numbers reflect a quarterback whose recent two-season arc runs in opposite directions.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 46 | 28 | 297 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 24.4 |
| 2024 | 545 | 361 | 4319 | 35 | 12 | 67 | 212 | 1 | 8 | 320.0 |
| 2025 | 477 | 323 | 4048 | 25 | 14 | 35 | 95 | — | 10 | 245.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 356 | 237.3 | 2888 | 20.7 | 9 | 41 | 107.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 204.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at or below 71.5 points, a number that reflects how badly a Darnold season can go when the turnovers pile up: 14 interceptions and 6 fumbles lost in 2025, 4 fumbles lost and 12 interceptions in 2024. At the optimistic end, the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 332.7 points, a figure consistent with a repeat of his 2024 form. The middle of the band runs from 132.3 (p25) to 267.5 (p75). That is a 135-point spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles alone, which signals meaningful season-to-season variance. Drafters taking him late are buying a lottery ticket on the high end of that band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Darnold at pick 167.8, which works out to the 14th round, 12th pick in a 12-team snake draft (14.12). That is deep-draft territory. His rank of #205 overall and QB21 reflect a projection below replacement level, so the expectation going in should be modest. In a single-QB league, he is a late-round flier or a handcuff for a manager who wants a high-variance backup. His bye is Week 11, worth noting if your roster construction is tight around that week. The case for rostering him rests entirely on the possibility that his 2024 production resurfaces; the case against rests on 2025 and a three-year average that is considerably more pedestrian than his best season.
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Questions drafters ask
At his current market ADP of 14.12 in a 12-team draft, he costs a late-round pick. His projection of 212.5 points and a draft value of -45.8 put him at QB21 and below replacement level, so the expectation should be a backup or streaming option, not a starter. The upside is real: his p90 simulated season reaches 332.7 points. The downside is equally real: his p10 is 71.5 points.
Very. In 2024 he threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. In 2025 those numbers dropped to 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns, with interceptions rising from 12 to 14 and fumbles lost climbing from 4 to 6. The three-year average passing touchdown total is 20.7. The outcome band reflects that variance: the spread from p25 to p75 is 135.2 points (132.3 to 267.5).
It adds a floor. He logged 67 rush attempts for 212 yards and a touchdown in 2024, and 35 attempts for 95 yards in 2025. The three-year average is 41 rush attempts and 107.3 rush yards per season. That rushing contribution provides points that pure pocket passers cannot generate, but it has not been enough to lift his projection above replacement level.
The market ADP is 167.8, or pick 14.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the last round of a standard 14-round draft. If you want him, you can wait until that final turn, but given the thin market data (two source platforms), that number may shift.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.