#222 overall · JAX · 55.3 projected half-PPR pts · -54.9 Draft Value
Chris Rodriguez — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2025 season was a clear step forward for Chris Rodriguez. He carried the ball 112 times for 500 yards and six rushing touchdowns, all career highs across three seasons of NFL work. That touchdown rate stands out: six scores on 112 attempts is a meaningful improvement over the two touchdowns he posted in each of the two prior years. The receiving side remains thin, with just three receptions for 30 yards on four targets in 2025, but the ground-game production is real. For a drafter hunting late-round upside at running back, Rodriguez's 2025 workload is the foundation of the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 71.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at RB51 and #231 overall, placing Rodriguez in Tier 9. His draft value is -56.2, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages tell the story of a player whose role has grown: 66 rush attempts, 306.7 rush yards, and 3.3 rushing touchdowns per season across 2023 through 2025, with the 2025 line pulling those averages up considerably.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 51 | 247 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 36.9 |
| 2024 | 35 | 173 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | — | 31.0 |
| 2025 | 112 | 500 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 30 | — | 90.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 66 | 306.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 18 | 0.3 | 53.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons finish at just 9.0 points. The 25th percentile reaches 29.0 points. The median simulated season lands at 63.9 points, close to but slightly below the 71.1 point projection. The 75th percentile climbs to 105.8 points, and the 90th percentile reaches 150.6 points. That spread from 9.0 to 150.6 reflects genuine variance: a strong outcome pushes Rodriguez into useful fantasy territory, while a poor one produces near-zero value. The gap between the median and the 90th percentile is large enough that the upside case is real, but so is the floor risk.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Rodriguez's market ADP is 141.3, which works out to pick 12.09 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick, consistent with his Tier 9 standing and RB51 position rank. A drafter who wants him will need to spend that 12th-round pick to secure him. His bye is Week 7, worth noting for roster management in the early weeks of the fantasy playoffs. At this stage of a draft, the question is simply whether his 2025 workload and touchdown upside are worth one of your final selections.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 112 times for 500 yards and six rushing touchdowns, adding three receptions for 30 yards on four targets. Those are career highs across all three seasons on record.
The projection is 71.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks RB51 and #231 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -56.2, which is below replacement level at the position.
The simulated season band runs from 9.0 points at the 10th percentile to 150.6 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 63.9 points. The spread is substantial, reflecting meaningful variance in how his season could unfold.
His market ADP is 141.3, which translates to pick 12.09 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from two platforms. Plan to spend a 12th-round pick if you want him on your roster.
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Beyond the rankings
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