#327 overall · DEN · 39.2 projected half-PPR pts · -76.0 Draft Value
Pat Bryant — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Pat Bryant's 2025 season is the only NFL receiving history on record for him: 49 targets, 31 receptions, 378 yards, and one touchdown for Denver. That catch rate and that target volume represent a real foothold in an NFL offense. For a drafter working the late rounds or the waiver wire, the question is whether that foothold grows. The upside band answers that question more honestly than the projection does, and it leaves room for a meaningful leap.
What the model projects
The projection is 39.2 half-PPR fantasy points. Bryant ranks #329 overall and WR110, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -88.4, which places him below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect a player on the outer edge of the rankings, not a featured contributor.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 49 | 31 | 378 | 1 | 59.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 49 | 31 | 378 | 1 | 59.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed. The median simulated season lands at 22.2 points, well below the 39.2 projection. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces 0.0 points. The 25th percentile is 7.3 points. Move to the optimistic side and the picture changes: the 75th percentile reaches 52.9 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 90.8 points. That 90.8 ceiling is the number a drafter is actually betting on when they roster Bryant. The distance between the floor and that ceiling is as large as it gets for a player at this tier, and it tells you this is a high-variance, low-probability dart throw.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Bryant has no market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being consistently drafted at all. He is a free agent in most leagues until someone claims him. There is no pick cost to weigh here. If you want him, you add him off waivers or take him with a final-round flier. His bye is Week 10, worth noting for roster management but not a reason to avoid him at zero cost.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
Bryant caught 31 of 49 targets for 378 receiving yards and one touchdown in 2025. That is the entirety of his NFL receiving history on record.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons projects to 90.8 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile lands at 52.9. Those are the numbers a drafter is targeting when they roster him.
The projection is 39.2 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #329 overall and WR110 in Tier 9, with a draft value of -88.4, placing him below replacement level at wide receiver.
Bryant has no market ADP available across public 2026 draft platforms. He is not being consistently drafted, so in most leagues he is available off waivers at no pick cost.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.