#326 overall · BUF · 39.9 projected half-PPR pts · -75.8 Draft Value
Dawson Knox — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dawson Knox's 2025 season was his best of the three-year window on record. He posted 417 receiving yards, 36 receptions, 49 targets, and 4 touchdowns, each figure a clear step up from his 2023 and 2024 lines. The three-year averages tell a quieter story: 39.3 targets, 26.7 receptions, 304.7 yards, and 2.3 touchdowns per season. The 2025 numbers sit well above those averages, which means the case for Knox rests almost entirely on whether that uptick holds. He plays for a Buffalo offense that has historically supported tight end production, and the 2025 target share of 49 is the kind of volume that can sustain a fantasy-relevant floor at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 39.9 half-PPR fantasy points. Knox is ranked #298 overall and TE45, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -80.0, which places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point projection of 39.9 is roughly in line with his three-year average production, landing below his 2025 output but above his 2023 and 2024 totals.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 36 | 22 | 186 | 2 | 41.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | 22 | 311 | 1 | 48.1 |
| 2025 | 49 | 36 | 417 | 4 | 83.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 39.3 | 26.7 | 304.7 | 2.3 | 57.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 5.0 points, the 25th at 16.2, and the median at 36.1. The 75th percentile reaches 60.4 and the 90th climbs to 92.5. That spread from 5.0 to 92.5 reflects genuine season-to-season variance: Knox can finish as a near-zero contributor or, in a strong scenario, as a productive streamer. The median of 36.1 sits slightly below the 39.9 point estimate, and the gap between the 25th and 75th percentiles is substantial, underscoring how much his final line depends on touchdown fortune and target consistency.
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our projection
How to draft him
Knox does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. At #298 overall and TE45 in Tier 9, with a draft value of -80.0, he projects below replacement level. He is a late-draft or waiver-wire option rather than a planned roster piece. His bye falls in Week 7, worth noting if you are managing a thin tight end room. The 90th-percentile outcome of 92.5 points gives him a ceiling worth monitoring, but the median and lower percentiles make him a speculative add rather than a foundational target.
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Questions drafters ask
At TE45 and #298 overall with a draft value of -80.0, Knox projects below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. His 39.9-point projection and median simulated season of 36.1 points reflect a player better suited as a backup or streamer than a primary starter.
Over the past three seasons, Knox averaged 39.3 targets, 26.7 receptions, 304.7 yards, and 2.3 touchdowns. His 2025 season was his strongest of the three, with 49 targets, 36 receptions, 417 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 92.5 half-PPR points, with the 75th percentile at 60.4. Those figures represent his ceiling range, achievable in roughly the top quarter of simulated seasons.
Knox does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across public drafts to generate a reliable average pick. He is effectively an undrafted or very late pick in most leagues.
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Beyond the rankings
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