#328 overall · NO · 39.1 projected half-PPR pts · -76.1 Draft Value
Devaughn Vele — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Devaughn Vele's 2024 season is the foundation of whatever case exists here. He caught 41 passes on 55 targets for 475 yards and 3 touchdowns, a line that shows he can function as a real contributor when opportunity is present. His three-year aggregate sits at 33 receptions, 384 yards, and 2.5 receiving touchdowns per season, which reflects a player who has been in and out of a meaningful role. The 2025 line — 25 catches, 293 yards, 2 scores on 39 targets — is a step back from that 2024 peak, but the touchdowns stayed on pace. For a drafter building out the back end of a roster, Vele is a name with a documented NFL receiving floor, however modest.
What the model projects
The projection is 81.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below replacement level for the wide receiver position, reflected in a draft value of -48.1. He is WR77 and #204 overall, placed in Tier 9. The point estimate alone tells the story: this is a depth-roster projection, not a starter's line.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 55 | 41 | 475 | 3 | 86.0 |
| 2025 | 39 | 25 | 293 | 2 | 53.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 47 | 33 | 384 | 2.5 | 69.9 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide relative to the projection, which signals meaningful variance. The median simulated season lands at 61.5 points, below the 81.2 point estimate. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces just 11.9 points — essentially a non-factor campaign. The 25th percentile is 31.0 points, still well below replacement. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 97.8 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons climbs to 150.6 points. That 150.6 ceiling is the number a drafter is actually betting on when they roster Vele: a scenario where target volume expands and he converts at a rate closer to his 2024 production. The floor is severe; the ceiling is real but requires things to break right.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
The market ADP is 423.2, which works out to pick 36.03 in a 12-team draft — well into the final rounds of a standard snake draft. At that draft slot, roster cost is minimal. He is a late-round flier, the kind of pick made after a roster is otherwise complete. His bye is Week 8, worth noting for scheduling purposes. Draft him only if you have already addressed every other position of need and are looking for a high-variance dart throw at receiver depth.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 41 passes on 55 targets for 475 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns in 2024, his strongest single-season line on record.
The projection is 81.2 half-PPR fantasy points, with a draft value of -48.1, placing him at WR77 and #204 overall in Tier 9.
The band runs from 11.9 points at the 10th percentile to 150.6 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 61.5 points. The floor is very low; the ceiling requires a best-case scenario.
The market ADP is 423.2, or pick 36.03 in a 12-team draft. He is going in the final rounds, so roster cost is about as low as it gets.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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