#361 overall · NO · 33.5 projected half-PPR pts · -82.3 Draft Value
Noah Fant — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Noah Fant is a New Orleans tight end with three consecutive seasons of receiving production on record. His target volume has climbed each year he has a full line: 43 targets in 2023, 64 in 2024, 41 in 2025. His reception totals follow the same arc, and his 2024 season produced 500 receiving yards and a career-high 64 targets. The 2025 season added three receiving touchdowns, matching his three-year aggregate touchdown average of 1.3 per season in a single year. For a drafter willing to wait deep into a draft, that touchdown upside is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 33.0 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Fant ranks TE55 and #323 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -87.3, which places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where the model lands on a player whose three-year averages sit at 38 receptions, 49.3 targets, and 400.7 receiving yards per season.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 43 | 32 | 414 | — | — | 57.4 |
| 2024 | 64 | 48 | 500 | 1 | — | 80.0 |
| 2025 | 41 | 34 | 288 | 3 | 3 | 57.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 49.3 | 38 | 400.7 | 1.3 | 1 | 66.9 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season produces just 1.9 points; the 25th percentile reaches only 10.7. The median simulated season lands at 27.5 points, below the 33.0 point estimate. The 75th percentile climbs to 50.8 and the 90th percentile reaches 78.0. That gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial: a bad season is nearly a zero, while a strong one approaches a useful fantasy contributor. The 2025 fumble total of three lost fumbles in three fumbles is a real floor risk embedded in that lower band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Fant does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, he is a late-draft or waiver-wire consideration. At TE55 and #323 overall in Tier 9, the projection and draft value both signal a depth option rather than a starter. His bye falls in Week 8. If you carry him on a roster, plan around that gap. The upside case rests entirely on the 90th-percentile band: 78.0 points in a season where touchdowns cluster his way. The base case, at a 33.0-point projection, is a streaming option at best.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 33.0 points and his draft value is -87.3, placing him below replacement level at TE55 and #323 overall in Tier 9. He is a depth or streaming option, not a reliable starter, based on these numbers.
Over the past three seasons he averaged 49.3 targets per year. His single-season highs were 64 targets and 500 receiving yards in 2024, and 41 targets with three receiving touchdowns in 2025.
The 90th-percentile simulated season produces 78.0 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile lands at 50.8. Those outcomes require a favorable season; the median simulated season is only 27.5 points.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 1.9 points, and the 25th percentile is 10.7. His 2025 season also included three fumbles with three lost, which is a real floor risk the lower band reflects.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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