Matt Prater — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Matt Prater is on the BUF roster, and that matters. Buffalo's offense has consistently generated scoring opportunities, and the 2025 season reflects that: Prater attempted 20 field goals and 49 extra points, converting 18 field goals and 46 extra points. The extra-point volume alone — 49 attempts in 2025 — signals a high-scoring offense behind him. His 2023 season showed genuine range, with 9 field goals from 50-plus yards on 33 attempts and 28 makes. Over the three-year aggregate, he has averaged 17.3 made field goals and 26 extra points per season. For a drafter who waits on kicker, the question is whether the offense behind him keeps producing at that rate.

What the model projects

The projection is 83.9 half-PPR fantasy points. Prater sits at #292 overall and K31, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -82.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the number the rankings are built on, and it is the honest starting point for any decision about him.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. The p10 is 0.0 points — in the worst 10% of simulated seasons, he scores nothing. The p25 is 6.0 points. The median simulated season (p50) lands at 46.2 points, well below the 83.9 projection, which tells you the distribution is skewed by high-end outcomes. The p75 is 105.7 points and the p90 reaches 153.5 points. That gap between the p50 and p90 — 107.3 points — captures how much variance lives in this position. A great season is genuinely possible; a near-zero season is also in the band.

How to draft him

Prater does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. In practice, that means he is a late-round or undrafted option in most public leagues. At K31 with a negative draft value, he is not a priority at any stage of the draft. If you are targeting a kicker late and want BUF's offense behind the leg, Prater is the name to know — but the rankings place him outside the range where a pick carries meaningful expected value.

The projection is 83.9 points and the draft value is -82.0, placing him at K31 and #292 overall in Tier 9. That is below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The BUF offense did produce 49 extra-point attempts behind him in 2025, which is real volume, but the rankings reflect that the position-level bar is set by deeper options. He has no market ADP, so there is no pick cost to weigh against that value.

The three-year aggregate shows 17.3 made field goals, 26 extra points, and 19.7 field goal attempts per season on average, with 2.3 misses per year. The seasons vary considerably: 2023 produced 28 makes on 33 attempts with 9 from 50-plus yards; 2024 produced just 6 makes on 6 attempts with 10 extra points; 2025 rebounded to 18 makes on 20 attempts with 46 extra points. The range across those three years is wide.

The p10 is 0.0 points and the p25 is 6.0 points, so the downside is severe. The median simulated season (p50) is 46.2 points. The p90 is 153.5 points, meaning a top-10% season is genuinely high-scoring. The 83.9-point projection sits above the median, pulled up by that right-side tail.

He is K31 and #292 overall, placed in Tier 9. His draft value of -82.0 is below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.