#362 overall · SF · 33.4 projected half-PPR pts · -82.4 Draft Value
Jake Tonges — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jake Tonges put up every receiving yard, reception, target, and touchdown on his three-year ledger in a single 2025 season: 293 yards, 34 catches on 46 targets, and 5 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown rate relative to his target volume is the clearest thing working in his favor. For a deep-roster drafter hunting late-round upside at a thin position, that 2025 line is at least a real data point to anchor on.
What the model projects
The projection is 34.4 half-PPR fantasy points. Tonges sits at TE52 and #316 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -85.5, which places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection and the rank are consistent: this is a player on the outer edge of the rankings.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 46 | 34 | 293 | 5 | 76.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 46 | 34 | 293 | 5 | 76.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The median simulated season lands at 29.3 points. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons comes in at 2.5 points, and the 25th percentile sits at just 11.8. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 52.7 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons hits 81.0. That 81.0 ceiling is meaningful context: a small share of outcomes produces a genuinely useful fantasy season, but the distribution is heavily weighted toward the low end. The gap between the p10 and p90 is nearly 78.5 points, which signals substantial variance in either direction.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Tonges does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, he is a free agent on the waiver wire in most drafts. There is no pick cost to weigh here. If you want him on your roster, the path is a late add rather than a draft-day commitment. His bye falls in Week 8, worth noting for roster management if he does earn a spot.
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Questions drafters ask
He is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to have a market ADP, so in most drafts he costs nothing. His projection is 34.4 half-PPR points and his draft value is -85.5, placing him at TE52 and #316 overall in Tier 9, below replacement level. The case for rostering him is built on waiver-wire availability, not a draft pick.
In 2025 he caught 34 of 46 targets for 293 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Those are also his only numbers across the three-year aggregate window from 2023 to 2025, meaning 2025 is the entirety of his recorded production.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons projects to 81.0 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile lands at 52.7. The median simulated season is 29.3 points. The upside exists but the distribution is heavily skewed toward the low end, with the 10th percentile at just 2.5 points.
Week 8.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.