#27 overall · DAL · 173.5 projected half-PPR pts · +45.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 29.9
Javonte Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Javonte Williams put together his best season on record in 2025: 252 rush attempts, 1,201 rushing yards, and 11 rushing touchdowns, all career highs. He added 35 receptions for 137 yards and 2 receiving scores, finishing with a receiving target share that has stayed in the 51-70 range across each of the last three seasons. That consistent pass-game involvement is the floor-builder here. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, Williams averaged 202.7 rush attempts, 829.3 rushing yards, and 44.7 receptions per season. The 2025 breakout in touchdowns, 11 on the ground alone, is the number that separates that season from the two before it. Now in Dallas, he carries a draftValue of +45.1, meaning the projection puts him meaningfully above replacement level at the running back position.
What the model projects
The projection for Williams is 173.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below his 2025 actual output, reflecting the season-to-season variance built into any running back projection. He ranks #27 overall and RB17 at his position, placing him in Tier 6 of the rankings. His bye week is Week 14.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 217 | 774 | 3 | 58 | 47 | 228 | 2 | 1 | 151.7 |
| 2024 | 139 | 513 | 4 | 70 | 52 | 346 | — | 2 | 131.9 |
| 2025 | 252 | 1201 | 11 | 51 | 35 | 137 | 2 | 2 | 225.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 202.7 | 829.3 | 6 | 59.7 | 44.7 | 237 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 172.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a running back whose workload and touchdown rate can shift considerably. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 76.7 points, a number that reflects how badly things can go when volume or efficiency disappears. The 25th percentile is 128.2 points, the median outcome is 185.0 points, the 75th percentile is 233.4 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reaches 266.6 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 is nearly 190 points, so drafters should enter with eyes open: the upside is real, and so is the downside. Williams has fumbled twice in each of the last two seasons, losing one in 2023 and two in 2024, and two fumbles with two lost in 2025 as well, a pattern worth tracking.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Williams is going at an average pick of 29.9, which works out to pick 3.06 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the third round, sixth pick of the round. His overall rank is #27, so the market is pricing him close to where the projection places him. If you want him, the third round is when you need to spend the pick. At that cost, you are getting a back with a proven three-down role, a recent 1,200-yard, 11-touchdown season, and a projection that clears replacement level by 45.1 points.
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Questions drafters ask
Williams carried the ball 252 times for 1,201 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. He added 35 receptions on 51 targets for 137 receiving yards and 2 receiving scores.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 76.7 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 128.2 points, so roughly one in four simulated seasons finishes below that mark.
His market ADP is 29.9, which translates to pick 3.06 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to use a third-round pick if you want him on your roster.
Yes. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 59.7 targets and 44.7 receptions per year. In 2024 he saw 70 targets and caught 52 passes for 346 yards, his most productive receiving season in that span.
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Beyond the rankings
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