#247 overall · CIN · 106.3 projected half-PPR pts · -59.5 Draft Value
Evan McPherson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Evan McPherson has been one of the more active kickers in the AFC over the past three seasons. His three-year averages tell the story plainly: 27 field goal attempts, 22.3 makes, and 39.3 extra points per season. In 2025 he posted 25 field goals on 28 attempts with only 3 misses, his cleanest accuracy season of the three-year window. He also connected on 5 field goals from 50-plus yards that year, matching his 2023 output from distance. The underlying volume is real: 44 extra point attempts in 2025 signal a Cincinnati offense that was scoring consistently. For a drafter willing to wait on the position, that combination of volume and long-range capability is the foundation of the case.
What the model projects
The projection is 113.0 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits above the median simulated season of 118.4, which is a normal relationship between a point estimate and a distribution with a long downside tail. McPherson ranks K18 at the position and #243 overall. His draft value is -60.9, placing him in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement-level projection by definition, which is the baseline reality for kickers taken this late in any ranking set.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | 5 | 40 | 135.0 |
| 2024 | 16 | 6 | 37 | 88.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | 3 | 41 | 133.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 22.3 | 4.7 | 39.3 | 34.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, as it is for every kicker. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 27.5 points, a number that reflects how badly a low-volume or high-miss season can crater a kicker's fantasy value. The 25th percentile is 79.7. The median is 118.4. The 75th percentile reaches 139.4, and the top 10% of simulated seasons comes in at 157.8. That spread from 27.5 to 157.8 is the honest picture: the floor is severe and the ceiling is real, with most of the probability mass clustered in the 79.7-to-139.4 range. His 2024 season, when he made just 16 field goals on 22 attempts with 6 misses, is a concrete example of what the lower end of that band looks like in practice.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting McPherson at pick 160.8 on average, which works out to round 14, pick 5 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick cost to secure him if you want him specifically. His bye is Week 6, which is worth noting for early-season lineup management. At K18 and #243 overall, he is a late-round kicker option. If you are running a zero-kicker or near-zero-kicker draft strategy, the round-14 price is the relevant data point for deciding whether to spend that pick here or hold for a different option at another position.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the 2023-2025 window he averaged 27 field goal attempts and 22.3 makes per season. His attempt totals were 31 in 2023, 22 in 2024, and 28 in 2025.
In 2025 he missed just 3 field goals on 28 attempts. In 2023 he missed 5 on 31 attempts, and in 2024 he missed 6 on 22 attempts. The 2025 season was his most accurate of the three.
The projection is 113.0 half-PPR points. The simulated season band runs from 27.5 at the 10th percentile to 157.8 at the 90th percentile, with a median of 118.4. The spread reflects the high variance inherent to the kicker position.
The market average draft position is 160.8, which translates to round 14, pick 5 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick cost if you want to target him specifically.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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