#205 overall · CIN · 64.3 projected half-PPR pts · -51.4 Draft Value
Mike Gesicki — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Gesicki's 2024 season is the number that keeps him relevant in late-round TE conversations. He caught 65 of 83 targets for 665 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, a catch rate that signals genuine reliability when volume is there. That was the high-water mark across his three tracked seasons: the three-year averages sit at 40.7 receptions, 56.7 targets, and 405.3 receiving yards per season, with a remarkably consistent 2 receiving touchdowns every year. The floor on touchdowns has been dependable even when yardage fluctuated. For a drafter filling out a roster in the final rounds, that consistency at the position is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 66.0 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Gesicki at TE27 and #214 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -56.3, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 66.0 is close to his three-year average production and slightly below the median simulated season of 68.5 points, which reflects a realistic baseline rather than an optimistic one.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 45 | 29 | 244 | 2 | — | 50.9 |
| 2024 | 83 | 65 | 665 | 2 | 1 | 109.0 |
| 2025 | 42 | 28 | 307 | 2 | — | 56.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 56.7 | 40.7 | 405.3 | 2 | 0.3 | 72.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the bottom 10 percent of outcomes, Gesicki finishes at 21.7 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 41.4 points, still well below useful TE production. The median outcome is 68.5 points. Things improve meaningfully at the top of the band: the 75th percentile is 92.3 points and the 90th percentile reaches 124.0 points. That upper tail is the only scenario where he provides genuine fantasy value. The spread from p10 to p90 covers more than 100 points, which reflects how volatile his season-to-season output has been. His bye falls in Week 6, worth noting for roster management.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Gesicki does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. In practice, he is a free agent in most drafts. At TE27 and #214 overall with a negative draft value, he is a depth option at best. The realistic use case is as a late-roster add or a streaming option if the 2024 target volume re-emerges. Do not spend a meaningful pick here; if he is available at all, he will be available late or on the waiver wire.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection of 66.0 points and a draft value of -56.3 put him below replacement level at TE in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks TE27 and #214 overall. He is a depth or streaming option, not a starter to target with a meaningful pick.
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, he averaged 40.7 receptions, 56.7 targets, 405.3 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns per season. His 2024 was the strongest of the three: 65 receptions, 83 targets, 665 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The 2023 and 2025 seasons were considerably lighter in volume.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 124.0 points, and the 75th percentile is 92.3 points. Those are the scenarios where he approaches useful fantasy production. The median outcome is 68.5 points, and the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at just 21.7 points.
Gesicki does not have a market ADP in 2026 public drafts. He is not being consistently selected across the platforms tracked, so in most drafts he will be available at no cost at all.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.