#204 overall · KC · 114.5 projected half-PPR pts · -51.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 173.0
Harrison Butker — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Harrison Butker plays for one of the most prolific offenses in the league, and his three-year track record reflects that. From 2023 through 2025 he averaged 29 made field goals and 32.7 extra points per season, with 32.7 field goal attempts per year. In 2023 he connected on 33 of 35 attempts, including 5 from 50-plus yards, and in 2025 he matched that 33-make total while attempting 38 and hitting 5 more from beyond 50. The volume of opportunities that comes with playing in Kansas City is real, and it shows up consistently in the counting stats. For a drafter who waits on kicker, Butker is a name with a legitimate workload behind him.
What the model projects
The projection is 127.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 130.6 points, close to that figure. Butker sits at #198 overall and K9, carrying a draft value of -49.7, which places him in Tier 9. The negative draft value means the projection falls below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 5.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 33 | 2 | 38 | 152.0 |
| 2024 | 21 | 4 | 29 | 96.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | 5 | 31 | 144.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 29 | 3.7 | 32.7 | 29.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide for a kicker, as it typically is. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finish at 74.3 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 105.6. The median is 130.6, the 75th percentile reaches 148.7, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 157.5. That is a spread of more than 83 points between the 10th and 90th percentiles. The 2024 season illustrates the downside: Butker made just 21 of 25 attempts with 4 misses and 29 extra points, a meaningful step back from his 2023 and 2025 lines. The 2025 season also included 5 misses on 38 attempts. Volume is present; efficiency has varied.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP, drawn from 2 platforms, has Butker going at pick 166.6, which translates to round 14, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. The model has him at #198 overall and K9. If you want him, round 14 is when the market says you need to spend a pick. Given the negative draft value and K9 position rank, most drafters will treat this as a late-round decision made only after all higher-value positions are addressed. His bye in Week 5 is early enough to plan around without much disruption.
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Questions drafters ask
He averaged 32.7 field goal attempts and 29 makes per season from 2023 through 2025. He hit 33 in 2023, 21 in 2024, and 33 again in 2025.
The projection is 127.4 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -49.7, placing him at #198 overall and K9 in Tier 9, below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finish at 74.3 points. The top 10% reach 157.5. The median simulated season is 130.6 points, so the realistic range is broad.
His market ADP is 166.6, which works out to round 14, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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