#203 overall · MIN · 196.5 projected half-PPR pts · -51.3 Draft Value
Kyler Murray — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kyler Murray is a dual-threat quarterback, and the 2024 season is the clearest evidence of what a full workload looks like from him. He threw for 3,851 yards and 21 touchdowns while adding 572 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores on 78 attempts. That rushing floor is real: across the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 329.7 rush yards and 50.3 rush attempts per year, with 3 rushing touchdowns per season on average. For a drafter willing to wait at quarterback, the upside of a mobile signal-caller who can score on the ground is the core argument here.
What the model projects
The projection is 217.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the season, with a bye in Week 6. Murray ranks #170 overall and QB21, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -36.3, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the number the rankings are built on, and it is the honest starting point for any decision about him.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 268 | 176 | 1799 | 10 | 5 | 44 | 244 | 3 | 7 | 149.4 |
| 2024 | 541 | 372 | 3851 | 21 | 11 | 78 | 572 | 5 | 7 | 306.2 |
| 2025 | 161 | 110 | 962 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 173 | 1 | 1 | 80.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 323.3 | 219.3 | 2204 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 50.3 | 329.7 | 3 | 5 | 182.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Murray finishes at 75.6 points, a figure consistent with the kind of truncated output his 2025 line (962 pass yards, 6 passing touchdowns, 173 rush yards across 161 pass attempts) already demonstrated is possible. The median simulated season lands at 198.5 points. At the 75th percentile the number climbs to 272.4, and the top-10-percent outcome reaches 335.4 points, a figure closer to what his 2024 production implied. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is 259.8 points, which is a substantial spread. The three-year averages tell the same story: 2,204 pass yards, 12.3 passing touchdowns, and 6.3 interceptions per season on average, with the 2024 peak and the 2023 and 2025 reduced lines pulling in opposite directions.
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our projection
How to draft him
Murray's market ADP is 143.6, which works out to pick 12.12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the last pick of the 12th round. His ranking is #170 overall and QB21. Drafters who want him should plan around that late-round market price. At that stage of a draft, the cost is low and the quarterback position is typically well-picked-over, so the decision comes down to whether the upside band justifies the spot. The wide outcome range and the negative draft value are both facts to weigh. A Week 6 bye is worth noting for lineup planning early in the season.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, Murray averaged 50.3 rush attempts, 329.7 rush yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns per year. His peak was 2024, when he carried 78 times for 572 yards and 5 scores. Even in 2023, a reduced season, he posted 44 attempts for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The projection is 217.5 half-PPR points. The simulated season band runs from 75.6 points at the 10th percentile to 335.4 at the 90th percentile, with a median of 198.5. That is a wide spread, reflecting meaningful variance in his season-to-season output.
His market ADP is 143.6, which translates to pick 12.12 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from two platforms. If you want Murray, plan to spend a pick in the 12th round.
Below. His draft value is -36.3 in a 12-team half-PPR format, which places him at QB21 and #170 overall in Tier 9. The projection of 217.5 points does not clear the replacement-level bar at the position in this format.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.