#86 overall · ARI · 123.8 projected half-PPR pts · -5.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 81.3
Michael Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Wilson's 2025 season is the foundation of the case. He posted 1,006 receiving yards, 78 receptions, 126 targets, and 7 touchdowns, a clear step up from his first two NFL seasons. His three-year averages across 2023-2025 sit at 85 targets, 54.3 receptions, 706.3 receiving yards, and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season, numbers that reflect a player still ascending rather than one coasting on a single outlier year. The 2025 target volume in particular, 126, signals a genuine role at the top of Arizona's passing game. Wilson is WR38 in the rankings and lands in Tier 9, which means his draft cost reflects a player the market has not fully priced as a locked-in starter with a 1,000-yard season already on his resume.
What the model projects
The projection for Wilson is 123.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits just below his 2025 actual production, which is consistent with a player whose three-year average is being pulled down by two quieter early seasons. His draft value is -5.4, placing him just below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #86 overall and WR38. His bye week is 14.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 58 | 38 | 565 | 3 | — | — | — | 93.5 |
| 2024 | 71 | 47 | 548 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 101.0 |
| 2025 | 126 | 78 | 1006 | 7 | — | — | — | 181.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 85 | 54.3 | 706.3 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 126.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the honest story for a player at this tier. The median simulated season lands at 122.3 points, close to the projection of 123.8. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons come in at 49.3 points, and the 25th percentile is 82.8, meaning a meaningful share of outcomes fall well short of the projection. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 157.2 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons hit 197.8. That upper band represents a genuine WR2 season. The floor is real, but so is the ceiling, and the spread between them is something a drafter needs to weigh honestly before committing a pick.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Wilson's market ADP is 81.3, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 7.09 in a 12-team snake draft. He ranks #86 overall in our rankings. If you want him, the seventh round is where the market is currently pricing the pick. His Tier 9 placement and negative draft value mean he is a depth or upside selection at that stage, not a core-roster anchor. In best-ball formats or in leagues where you are stacking with Arizona's offense, the seventh-round cost is a reasonable place to take a shot on the 2025 breakout carrying forward. In redraft leagues where floor matters, the wide band of outcomes is worth factoring into how much roster capital you commit to him.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes. Wilson posted 1,006 receiving yards on 78 receptions and 126 targets in 2025, adding 7 receiving touchdowns.
The projection is 123.8 half-PPR fantasy points, with a median simulated season of 122.3. His draft value is -5.4, placing him just below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The simulated season band runs from 49.3 points at the 10th percentile to 197.8 at the 90th percentile. The 25th percentile is 82.8 points, so a bad-but-not-worst season still falls well short of the projection. The upside at the 75th percentile is 157.2 points.
His market ADP is 81.3 across two platforms, which works out to pick 7.09 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend a seventh-round pick if you want him on your roster.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.