#323 overall · LV · 40.2 projected half-PPR pts · -75.5 Draft Value
Michael Mayer — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Mayer's 2025 season was the clearest version of what he can be: 50 targets, 35 receptions, 328 receiving yards, and a touchdown. Those are the best single-season numbers of his three-year career, and they represent a meaningful step forward from the 32-target, 156-yard 2024 campaign. His three-year averages tell a similar story of a player finding his footing: 40.7 targets, 27.7 receptions, 262.7 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown per season. The floor is real usage. The question is whether that usage translates into fantasy-relevant production.
What the model projects
The projection is 40.2 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Mayer at TE43 and #293 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -82.1, which means the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 40.2 is close to his three-year average production, reflecting a career that has been consistent in volume without breaking through into high-end fantasy scoring. His bye week is Week 13.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 40 | 27 | 304 | 2 | — | 55.9 |
| 2024 | 32 | 21 | 156 | — | — | 26.1 |
| 2025 | 50 | 35 | 328 | 1 | 1 | 56.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 40.7 | 27.7 | 262.7 | 1 | 0.3 | 46.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The 10th-percentile outcome is 5.2 points, a near-total absence from the fantasy stat sheet. The 25th percentile comes in at 16.4 points, still well below useful. The median simulated season lands at 36.5 points, slightly under the 40.2 point estimate. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 60.8 points and the 90th percentile reaches 93.2 points. That top-decile outcome would represent a genuine breakout, but the bottom half of the band is a reminder that Mayer's path to fantasy relevance is narrow. The spread from p10 to p90 is 88.0 points, which signals high variance relative to a modest central projection.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Mayer does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. At TE43 and #293 overall with a negative draft value, he is a deep-roster consideration at best. In a 12-team half-PPR league, the replacement-level tight end pool is deep enough that rostering Mayer requires a specific reason: a late-round dart throw on the 2025 target-share trend, or a handcuff strategy built around his team's situation. Do not spend a meaningful pick here. If he ends up on your roster, it should cost you almost nothing.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 40.2 points, placing him at TE43 and #293 overall with a draft value of -82.1, which is below replacement level. He has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts. He is a deep-roster or streaming consideration, not a player to spend a real pick on.
He has seen 40, 32, and 50 targets in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 40.7 targets per season. The 2025 season was his highest-volume year, producing 35 receptions for 328 yards and 1 touchdown.
The 90th-percentile simulated season outcome is 93.2 points in half-PPR. That represents the top 10% of his simulated seasons and would be a significant step above his career production. The 75th-percentile outcome is 60.8 points. Both are possible, but the median simulated season sits at 36.5 points.
Significant. The 10th-percentile simulated season outcome is 5.2 points, and the 25th percentile is 16.4 points. Half of his simulated seasons land at or below 36.5 points. The wide band from 5.2 to 93.2 points reflects high variance around a below-replacement projection.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.