#324 overall · CAR · 172.2 projected half-PPR pts · -75.6 Draft Value
Bryce Young — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Bryce Young's 2025 season was the clearest version of what he can be: 3,011 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and 216 rushing yards on 54 attempts, with 2 rushing scores added on top. That passing touchdown total was a meaningful step up from the 15 he posted in 2024 and the 11 from 2023. His three-year averages tell a steadier story than any single season: 2,763.7 passing yards, 16.3 passing touchdowns, 2.7 rushing touchdowns, and 239.3 rushing yards per season. The rushing contribution is real and consistent, with 39, 43, and 54 attempts across the three years. The fumble picture has improved: 11 fumbles and 6 lost in 2023 gave way to 4 fumbles and 2 lost in 2024, then 6 fumbles and 4 lost in 2025. Interceptions have stayed in a narrow band, 10 in 2023, 9 in 2024, 11 in 2025, averaging exactly 10 over the three-year stretch. The case for drafting him is simple: the 2025 line is the best of his career, and it came with a rushing floor that most quarterbacks cannot offer.
What the model projects
The projection for Young is 172.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -89.1, placing him QB29 and #329 overall in Tier 9. That projection is below his 2025 actual output, and the negative draft value reflects where he stands relative to replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 5, which is among the earlier byes on the calendar and worth noting when constructing a roster.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 527 | 315 | 2877 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 253 | — | 11 | 162.4 |
| 2024 | 384 | 234 | 2403 | 15 | 9 | 43 | 249 | 6 | 4 | 204.0 |
| 2025 | 478 | 304 | 3011 | 23 | 11 | 54 | 216 | 2 | 6 | 227.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 463 | 284.3 | 2763.7 | 16.3 | 10 | 45.3 | 239.3 | 2.7 | 7 | 205.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The 10th-percentile outcome is 45.0 points, a near-total collapse of production. The 25th percentile comes in at 95.2 points, still well below replacement-level territory. The median simulated season lands at 142.3 points, short of the 172.2 point projection. The 75th percentile reaches 220.2 points, and the 90th-percentile outcome is 287.4 points, a figure that would represent a significant leap beyond anything in his three-year history. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is 242.4 points, which signals substantial season-to-season variance. A drafter targeting Young is accepting a wide range: the floor is very low, and the ceiling, while real, requires a best-case scenario to materialize.
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our projection
How to draft him
Young does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. In practice, he is a late-round or undrafted option in most leagues. At QB29 and #329 overall, he profiles as a deep backup or a speculative streamer rather than a starter. His Week 5 bye is early, so any roster that carries him as a primary starter needs a plan for that week. The upside case, anchored by his 2025 passing touchdown total and a consistent rushing contribution, is real enough to warrant a late flier in deeper formats or two-quarterback leagues. In standard 12-team half-PPR, the numbers place him outside the range where a meaningful draft investment is warranted.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 172.2 points with a draft value of -89.1, ranking him QB29 and #329 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers place him below replacement level at the position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format, so he does not project as a reliable starter in that context.
Over three seasons (2023-2025), he averaged 2,763.7 passing yards, 16.3 passing touchdowns, 2.7 rushing touchdowns, and 239.3 rushing yards per year. His best single season was 2025: 3,011 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 249 rushing yards, and 2 rushing scores on 54 attempts.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 287.4 points. That represents the top 10% of his projected season distribution and would require a significant improvement beyond his three-year averages. The 75th-percentile outcome is 220.2 points, which is more attainable but still above his projected baseline of 172.2.
Young has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough to generate one. He is effectively an undrafted or deep-late-round option. His bye falls in Week 5, one of the earlier byes on the schedule, so roster construction around that week matters if he is on your team.
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Beyond the rankings
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