#320 overall · MIA · 41.0 projected half-PPR pts · -74.8 Draft Value
Greg Dulcich — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and it starts with 2025. Dulcich posted his most productive season on record that year: 33 targets, 26 receptions, 335 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown. That is a meaningful step forward from the 4 targets and 25 yards he logged in 2023, and the 12 targets and 28 yards in 2024. The three-year averages reflect how shallow the prior baseline was: 16.3 targets, 11.3 receptions, and 129.3 receiving yards per season. But 2025 showed he can hold a role and produce when given the opportunity. For a drafter who needs a late-roster tight end and is willing to bet on that trajectory continuing in Miami, Dulcich is the name to know at this tier.
What the model projects
The projection is 41.0 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That sits against a draft value of -81.5, placing Dulcich at TE42 and #288 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player who projects below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 41.0 points is the headline number; it is not the median of the simulated outcomes, which sits at 37.5.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4 | 3 | 25 | — | — | 4.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | 5 | 28 | — | — | 5.3 |
| 2025 | 33 | 26 | 335 | 1 | 1 | 49.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 16.3 | 11.3 | 129.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 20.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of Dulcich's profile. In the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons, he finishes at 5.5 points. The 25th percentile is 17.0 points. The median simulated season lands at 37.5 points. The 75th percentile reaches 61.9 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons comes in at 94.8 points. That spread from 5.5 to 94.8 points tells you this is a high-variance situation. The floor is essentially nothing; the ceiling, while not guaranteed, is a legitimate fantasy contributor. His bye is Week 6.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Dulcich does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, that makes him a free agent on most draft days: a name to target on the waiver wire or as a final-round flier if a roster spot opens late. At TE42 and #288 overall, he is a depth option, not a starter. Draft him only if you have already secured a reliable tight end and are looking for a high-variance lottery ticket at the back of your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
At TE42 and #288 overall with a draft value of -81.5, he projects below replacement level at the position. The projection is 41.0 points for the season. He is a depth option or a late-roster flier, not a recommended starter.
In 2023 he had 4 targets, 3 receptions, and 25 receiving yards. In 2024 it was 12 targets, 5 receptions, and 28 yards. In 2025 he took a clear step forward: 33 targets, 26 receptions, 335 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown. The three-year averages are 16.3 targets, 11.3 receptions, and 129.3 receiving yards per season.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 94.8 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 61.9 points. Those are the top-end outcomes; the median simulated season is 37.5 points and the 10th-percentile floor is 5.5 points.
Dulcich has no market ADP in 2026 public drafts. He is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to produce a median draft position, so he is effectively available as a waiver-wire add rather than a pick you need to spend in most drafts.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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