#127 overall · LAR · 225.9 projected half-PPR pts · -21.9 Draft Value
Matthew Stafford — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2025 season is the loudest argument in Stafford's recent file. He threw for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions on 597 attempts, completing 388 passes. That touchdown total is a sharp departure from the 24 he posted in 2023 and the 20 he posted in 2024. The three-year average sits at 30 passing touchdowns, 4,144.7 passing yards, and 9 interceptions per season, so 2025 looks like a genuine step up rather than a continuation of a flat trend. Fumble exposure is real: 5 fumbles and 3 lost in 2025, 6 fumbles and 2 lost in 2024. But the turnover rate on throws has been steady and relatively clean across all three seasons. A drafter who believes 2025 is the new baseline, not an outlier, has a coherent case to make.
What the model projects
The projection is 256.0 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below the 2025 actual output, which reflects the full three-year picture rather than a single season. The draft value is -5.4, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #89 overall and QB7 at his position, placed in Tier 9. His bye week is 11.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 521 | 326 | 3965 | 24 | 11 | 21 | 65 | — | 250.1 |
| 2024 | 517 | 340 | 3762 | 20 | 8 | 30 | 41 | 6 | 222.6 |
| 2025 | 597 | 388 | 4707 | 46 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 358.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 545 | 351.3 | 4144.7 | 30 | 9 | 26.7 | 35.7 | 3.7 | 280.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 103.7 points, and the 25th percentile is 190.1. The median simulated season is 248.9 points, close to but slightly below the 256.0 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 312.6 and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 363.7. That spread from 103.7 to 363.7 is substantial. The floor is genuinely low, consistent with a season closer to his 2023 or 2024 output. The ceiling, at 363.7, reflects the possibility that 2025-level production repeats. Drafters should enter this pick knowing the downside is real and the upside is meaningful.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 87.5, which works out to pick 8.03 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means you are spending a mid-to-late-round pick to secure him. At QB7 with a -5.4 draft value, the projection does not clear replacement level, so the bet here is on upside: that 2025 was a signal, not noise. His bye falls in Week 11, which is worth noting for roster planning. If you are running a late-quarterback strategy, this is the range where Stafford becomes relevant. Know the floor before you commit the pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He completed 388 of 597 pass attempts for 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He also had 5 fumbles, losing 3.
The projection is 256.0 half-PPR fantasy points. His 2025 actual output was higher, but the three-year average across 2023-2025 includes seasons of 24 and 20 passing touchdowns, which pulls the projection below last year's pace.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 103.7 points and the 25th percentile is 190.1. Those figures are consistent with a season closer to his 2023 or 2024 production levels.
His market ADP is 87.5, which translates to pick 8.03 in a 12-team draft. That median is drawn from two platforms, so plan to spend a pick in that range if you want him on your roster.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.