#126 overall · BUF · 94.2 projected half-PPR pts · -21.1 Draft Value
Khalil Shakir — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Khalil Shakir has posted back-to-back seasons of genuine volume in Buffalo. In 2024 he drew 100 targets, caught 76 of them for 821 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. In 2025 the target share held: 95 looks, 72 catches, 719 yards, and another 4 scores. Averaged across the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he has seen 80 targets, 62.3 receptions, 717 receiving yards, and 3.3 receiving touchdowns per year. That is a consistent, high-catch-rate profile with a real role in a high-powered offense. His bye falls in Week 7, which is manageable for roster planning.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -18.5, placing him #124 overall and WR52 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The number reflects what the model sees in his stat line, nothing more.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 45 | 39 | 611 | 2 | 1 | 10 | — | 93.6 |
| 2024 | 100 | 76 | 821 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 144.5 |
| 2025 | 95 | 72 | 719 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 130.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 80 | 62.3 | 717 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 123.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, outcomes bottom out at 37.1 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy season. The 25th percentile lands at 65.9 points, still well below replacement. The median simulated season comes in at 102.6 points, close to but slightly below the 110.1 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 138.0 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons produce 182.8 points or more. That upper tail is meaningful: a strong outcome pushes him into genuinely useful WR territory. The floor, however, is severe, and the distribution is skewed enough that the point estimate sits above the median. Drafters should price in both possibilities.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Shakir at an average of pick 129.9, which works out to Round 11, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. That is late-draft territory, where roster construction shifts toward upside hunting and streaming options. At WR52 and #124 overall, he is a depth or flex stash rather than a building block. If you want him, Round 11 is when you need to spend the pick. His wide outcome band means the cost is low and the ceiling is real, but the floor is equally real, so he fits best as a late-round addition to a roster that is already stable at the position.
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Questions drafters ask
He has seen 100 targets in 2024 and 95 in 2025, catching 76 and 72 passes respectively. His three-year average sits at 80 targets and 62.3 receptions per season.
The projection is 110.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -18.5, which means the projection falls below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #124 overall and WR52 in Tier 9.
Very wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season produces just 37.1 points, while the 90th percentile reaches 182.8. The median simulated season is 102.6 points, and the 75th percentile is 138.0. There is a meaningful upside tail, but the downside is steep.
The market average is pick 129.9, or Round 11, pick 10 in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across two platforms. If you want him on your roster, that is the range where you will need to spend a pick.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.