#125 overall · DAL · 95.0 projected half-PPR pts · -20.7 Draft Value
Jake Ferguson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jake Ferguson has been a consistent volume producer at tight end for Dallas over three seasons. He has hit 102 targets in both 2023 and 2025, and his three-year average sits at 96.7 targets per season. The 2025 campaign was his best scoring year: 82 receptions, 600 yards, and 8 receiving touchdowns on those 102 targets. That touchdown rate is the clearest argument in his favor. His three-year averages of 70.7 receptions and 4.3 receiving touchdowns show a floor that is real, and the 2025 ceiling shows what the upside looks like when the touchdowns fall his way.
What the model projects
The projection is 96.1 half-PPR fantasy points. Ferguson is TE15 and sits at #136 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -26.3, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 96.1 is the headline number to anchor to.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 102 | 71 | 761 | 5 | — | 141.6 |
| 2024 | 86 | 59 | 494 | — | 4 | 74.9 |
| 2025 | 102 | 82 | 600 | 8 | 3 | 145.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 96.7 | 70.7 | 618.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 123.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 41.8 points, and the 25th percentile is 71.2. The median simulated season is 105.9 points, which sits above the 96.1 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 128.5, and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 156.3. That spread from 41.8 to 156.3 reflects meaningful season-to-season variance. The fumble history adds a note of caution: Ferguson has fumbled 4 times in 2024, 3 times in 2025, and 2 times in 2023, losing 2 in each of the last two seasons. That is a recurring pattern worth tracking.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Ferguson going at pick 131.6, which translates to round 11, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. The model ranks him #136 overall and TE15. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier on a tight end with demonstrated target volume and a strong 2025 touchdown total. His bye is Week 14, which falls during the fantasy playoff window in most leagues. Factor that into your roster construction before committing a pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 82 passes for 600 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns on 102 targets, also adding 1 rush attempt for 1 yard. He fumbled 3 times and lost 2.
The simulated season band runs from 41.8 points at the 10th percentile to 156.3 at the 90th percentile, with a median of 105.9 half-PPR points. The floor is a genuinely low outcome; the ceiling is a meaningful one.
Market ADP puts him at pick 131.6, or round 11, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms.
Over three seasons Ferguson has fumbled 2, 4, and 3 times, losing 2 in each of the last two years. The three-year average is 2.3 fumbles per season. It is a consistent pattern in the historical record.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.