#248 overall · LV · 106.2 projected half-PPR pts · -59.7 Draft Value
Matt Gay — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Matt Gay has been a consistent volume kicker over the past three seasons. In 2023 he connected on 33 of 41 field goal attempts, including 8 from 50-plus yards, and converted 35 of 36 extra point attempts. In 2024 he went 31-for-37 on field goals and was a perfect 33-for-33 on extra points. The three-year averages back that up: 27 made field goals and 31.3 made extra points per season across 33.7 attempts. That is a workload profile that produces real fantasy scoring when the offense is moving. His Las Vegas assignment comes with a Week 13 bye, which is worth noting for roster management late in the season.
What the model projects
The projection is 106.2 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 115.9 points, a touch above the point estimate. Gay sits at K23 and #221 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -59.7, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 33 | 7 | 35 | 150.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | 6 | 33 | 133.0 |
| 2025 | 17 | 6 | 26 | 85.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 27 | 6.3 | 31.3 | 25.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is typical for the position. At the pessimistic end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 21.6 points. The 25th percentile is 75.0 points. The median is 115.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 133.2 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons come in at 153.8 points or better. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial: a bad season looks very different from a good one, and the downside is severe. The 2025 season illustrates that range in practice: Gay made just 17 of 23 field goal attempts and converted 26 extra points, a noticeably lighter workload than his 2023 or 2024 lines.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Gay is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost signal to report. At K23 and #221 overall in Tier 9, with a negative draft value, he projects below replacement level for the position. Kickers are typically the last position filled in a snake draft, and Gay's rank reflects that he is a late-round or undrafted option in most 12-team leagues. His Week 13 bye is a practical consideration: if you do roster him, plan for a replacement that week.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 27 made field goals on 33.7 attempts per season over the 2023-2025 span, with an average of 6.3 misses per year. In 2023 he went 33-for-41; in 2024, 31-for-37; in 2025, 17-for-23.
He made 8 field goals from 50-plus yards in 2023, 3 in 2024, and 4 in 2025. In the 40-49 yard range he made 7 in 2023, 7 in 2024, and 6 in 2025.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 153.8 half-PPR points, meaning roughly 1 in 10 simulated seasons reaches that level or higher. The 75th percentile is 133.2 points.
Gay's bye is Week 13. Since kickers are typically the last position rostered and streaming is common at the position, a late-season bye is worth factoring into your roster plan if you do draft him.
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Beyond the rankings
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