#249 overall · BAL · 50.3 projected half-PPR pts · -59.9 Draft Value
Justice Hill — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Justice Hill's most compelling trait over the past three seasons is his receiving work. In 2024 he caught 42 passes for 383 yards and added 3 receiving touchdowns on 51 targets, the clearest evidence that he can function as a pass-catching back when opportunity is there. Across the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 30.3 receptions, 252.7 receiving yards, and 39 targets per season. That consistent target share is the foundation of whatever fantasy value he carries. His 2023 season showed he can contribute on the ground as well, with 84 rush attempts for 387 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. The three-year rushing average sits at 49.7 attempts and 236 yards per season, so the ground contribution is real, if modest. For a drafter filling out a roster late, Hill's receiving floor is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 66.0 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Hill is ranked #239 overall and RB55, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -61.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 66.0 points is the point estimate; the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 56.6 points, a modest gap below the projection. Both figures reflect a player operating at the margins of fantasy relevance in this format. His bye week is 13.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 84 | 387 | 3 | 39 | 28 | 206 | 1 | 1 | 95.3 |
| 2024 | 47 | 228 | 1 | 51 | 42 | 383 | 3 | — | 106.1 |
| 2025 | 18 | 93 | 2 | 27 | 21 | 169 | 1 | 1 | 54.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 49.7 | 236 | 2 | 39 | 30.3 | 252.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 86.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of Hill's profile. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 7.0 points, essentially a non-factor. The 25th percentile lands at 24.9 points, still well below usable fantasy production. The median sits at 56.6 points. Moving up the band, the 75th percentile reaches 98.3 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 141.3 points. That top-end outcome is the only scenario where Hill becomes a meaningful fantasy contributor. The distance from the p10 to the p90 is 134.3 points, a span that reflects how heavily his production depends on circumstances that can shift sharply from week to week or season to season.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Hill at an average pick of 198.5, which works out to pick 17.07 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #239 overall and RB55. At pick 17.07, a drafter is spending a late-round selection on a player whose projection sits below replacement level and whose median simulated season is 56.6 points. The realistic use case is as a deep roster stash, held for the upside visible in the p75 and p90 outcomes. If you are targeting Hill, the market suggests you can wait until the 17th round to do it.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, Hill averaged 39 targets, 30.3 receptions, and 252.7 receiving yards per season. His best receiving year was 2024, when he caught 42 passes for 383 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns on 51 targets.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 141.3 half-PPR points. That is the top 10% of projected season outcomes. The 75th percentile sits at 98.3 points, so even a solidly above-average season lands just under 100 points.
The market ADP is 198.5, which translates to pick 17.07 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a very late-round selection, consistent with his #239 overall rank and RB55 position rank.
Below. His draft value is -61.5, meaning the 66.0-point projection falls short of replacement level at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is a speculative add, not a reliable contributor at his projected baseline.
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Beyond the rankings
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