#185 overall · PHI · 73.5 projected half-PPR pts · -41.7 Draft Value
Marquise Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Marquise Brown has two legitimate full-season stat lines on the books in the last three years. In 2023 he caught 51 of 101 targets for 574 yards and 4 touchdowns. In 2025 he caught 49 of 74 targets for 587 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those two seasons show a receiver who, when available, can produce at a useful clip. The 2025 line is particularly notable: fewer targets than 2023, yet more receiving yards and more touchdowns, pointing to improved efficiency. His three-year averages across 2023-2025 sit at 63.3 targets, 36.3 receptions, 417.3 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdowns are the clearest argument in his favor. A receiver who scores 4-5 times in a full season has a path to fantasy relevance even without elite volume, and Brown has done it twice in the last three years.
What the model projects
The projection for Brown is 76.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -52.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #202 overall and WR73. He is placed in Tier 9. These numbers reflect a player whose ceiling is real but whose floor and availability have weighed on his overall standing in the rankings.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 101 | 51 | 574 | 4 | 2 | 23 | — | 109.2 |
| 2024 | 15 | 9 | 91 | — | — | — | — | 13.6 |
| 2025 | 74 | 49 | 587 | 5 | — | — | 1 | 113.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 63.3 | 36.3 | 417.3 | 3 | 0.7 | 7.7 | 0.3 | 78.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Brown is wide, which is the defining feature of his profile. The 10th-percentile outcome is 10.2 points, a near-total non-season. The 25th percentile lands at 28.4 points. The median simulated season produces 57.1 points, below the 76.6 point projection, which signals the distribution is skewed by upside rather than centered on it. The 75th percentile reaches 92.9 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 144.0 points. That top-decile outcome represents a genuinely useful fantasy season. The gap between the p10 and p90 is 133.8 points, one of the wider spreads a drafter will encounter at this range of the rankings. Brown is a high-variance asset: the bad outcomes are very bad, and the good outcomes are meaningfully good.
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our projection
How to draft him
Brown does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. In practice, that makes him a late-round or post-draft target in most leagues. At WR73 with a negative draft value, he belongs in the final rounds of a draft or on the waiver wire, not as a planned starter. The case for rostering him is the 90th-percentile outcome: 144.0 points is a season that can contribute to a winning roster. Draft him only if you have your starters secured and are looking for a high-variance dart throw at receiver depth. His bye is Week 10, worth noting when constructing your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he posted 51 receptions, 101 targets, 574 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. In 2025 he posted 49 receptions, 74 targets, 587 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. His 2024 line was 9 receptions, 15 targets, and 91 receiving yards. His three-year averages from 2023-2025 are 36.3 receptions, 63.3 targets, 417.3 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns per season.
The projection is 76.6 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #202 overall and WR73, with a draft value of -52.2, placing him below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is in Tier 9.
The simulated season band runs from 10.2 points at the 10th percentile to 144.0 points at the 90th percentile. The median outcome is 57.1 points. A top-decile season at 144.0 points represents a genuinely useful fantasy contribution, but the downside is severe: one in four simulated seasons finishes at or below 28.4 points.
Brown has no available market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable pick number. Given his WR73 ranking and negative draft value, he is a late-round or waiver-wire target, not a planned starter. Secure your core roster first, then consider him only as a high-variance depth piece.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.