#186 overall · HOU · 73.4 projected half-PPR pts · -41.9 Draft Value
Kayshon Boutte — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kayshon Boutte's 2025 season showed real progress in one area: touchdowns. He hauled in 6 receiving touchdowns on 46 targets, a rate that stands out against his 2024 line of 3 touchdowns on 68 targets. His receiving yardage held steady, too, at 551 yards in 2025 after 589 in 2024. The three-year aggregate tells a more measured story, 26 receptions, 40.3 targets, and 386.3 receiving yards per season, but the trajectory from 2023 (2 receptions, 19 yards) to the last two seasons is a genuine step forward. For a drafter hunting late-round upside, the touchdown efficiency in 2025 is the number worth holding onto.
What the model projects
The projection is 93.0 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Boutte at #168 overall and WR65, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -36.2, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is 93.0 points; that is the figure driving his rank, and it reflects a player the model places outside the core fantasy-relevant receiver pool for 2026.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7 | 2 | 19 | — | 2.9 |
| 2024 | 68 | 43 | 589 | 3 | 98.4 |
| 2025 | 46 | 33 | 551 | 6 | 107.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 40.3 | 26 | 386.3 | 3 | 69.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The median simulated season lands at 78.0 points, below the 93.0 point projection, which signals meaningful right-tail pull. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons come in at 21.9 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 44.9. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 114.0 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 163.9 points. That 163.9 ceiling is the number a late-round speculator is chasing. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is substantial, so Boutte carries real variance in both directions. His bye week falls in Week 8.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Boutte at pick 164.0 on average, which works out to round 14, pick 8 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier. His rank is #168 overall and WR65. Drafters who want him should plan to spend a pick in the 14th round. Given the wide outcome band, he fits best as a depth add for a roster that can absorb a low-floor result while staying alive for the 163.9-point ceiling scenario.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 33 passes on 46 targets for 551 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns in 2025.
The projection is 93.0 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him #168 overall and WR65 in Tier 9, with a draft value of -36.2.
The top 10% of simulated seasons finish at 163.9 half-PPR points, while the 75th percentile lands at 114.0 points. The median simulated season is 78.0 points.
The market average is pick 164, or round 14, pick 8 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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