#184 overall · DEN · 73.7 projected half-PPR pts · -41.6 Draft Value
Troy Franklin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Troy Franklin's 2025 season was a genuine step forward. He turned 104 targets into 65 receptions for 709 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, a sharp improvement over his 2024 line of 53 targets, 28 catches, 263 yards, and 2 scores. The target volume alone — 104 in a single season — signals a real role in Denver's offense, not a cameo. His three-year averages (78.5 targets, 46.5 receptions, 486 receiving yards, 4 receiving touchdowns per season) are pulled down by limited early usage, so the 2025 line is the more relevant data point for projecting forward. A drafter who believes that target share holds has a receiver with a demonstrated path to WR2-adjacent production.
What the model projects
The projection is 73.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below his 2025 actual output, reflecting the variance inherent in a receiver at this stage of his career. His draft value is -54.7, placing him at WR80 and #219 overall in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The model is not bullish here: the headline number is a meaningful pullback from what Franklin produced in 2025.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 53 | 28 | 263 | 2 | 2 | 8 | — | 53.1 |
| 2025 | 104 | 65 | 709 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 138.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 78.5 | 46.5 | 486 | 4 | 3.5 | 10 | 0.5 | 96.9 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the defining feature of Franklin's profile. The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 9.0 points — essentially nothing. The 25th percentile is 26.5 points, still a near-total bust. The median simulated season is 54.2 points, below the projection's 73.5 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 89.6 points, and the 90th percentile climbs to 139.5 points. That top-decile outcome is the one a drafter is actually chasing: a receiver who posted 709 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2025 has shown he can get there. But the floor is severe, and the median outcome is a player who contributes very little to a fantasy roster.
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our projection
How to draft him
Franklin does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to generate one. He is a late-flier or waiver-wire name in most leagues right now. His bye is Week 10, worth noting for roster management. At WR80 and #219 overall, the ranking reflects a projection that sits below replacement level, so the case for rostering him rests entirely on the upside tail: the 90th-percentile outcome at 139.5 points and the 2025 track record of 104 targets and 6 touchdowns. Draft him only if you are comfortable absorbing a high bust rate in exchange for that ceiling.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 73.5 points and a draft value of -54.7 put him below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. The ranking is WR80, #219 overall, Tier 9. He is a speculative add, not a reliable contributor at that rank.
His targets jumped from 53 in 2024 to 104 in 2025. Receptions went from 28 to 65, receiving yards from 263 to 709, and receiving touchdowns from 2 to 6. Every counting stat roughly doubled or better.
The band runs from 9.0 points at the 10th percentile to 139.5 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 54.2 points. The floor is near zero, the ceiling is meaningful, and the typical outcome lands well below the projection's 73.5-point estimate. This is a high-variance profile.
Franklin does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts. He is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to generate one, so he is effectively undrafted in most leagues at this point.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.