#183 overall · NE · 104.2 projected half-PPR pts · -41.6 Draft Value
New England Patriots — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2025 season showed a version of the New England Patriots defense that is worth keeping in mind. Points allowed dropped to 320, the lowest of the three-year window, and the unit posted 34 sacks, 10 interceptions, and 4 defensive touchdowns. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 32.7 sacks, 9 interceptions, and 7.3 fumble recoveries per season. That is a defense that generates turnovers and pressures quarterbacks at a steady clip. The 2025 touchdown total of 4 was the high-water mark of the sample and a meaningful jump from the 1 posted in each of the two prior seasons. If that scoring rate holds at all, it changes the fantasy calculus considerably. The bye falls in Week 11, which is a manageable spot on the calendar.
What the model projects
The projection is 104.2 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -41.6, which places the Patriots below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. They rank DST24 at the position and #189 overall, sitting in Tier 9.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 36 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 366 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 113.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | 7 | 14 | 5 | — | — | 417 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 67.0 |
| 2025 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 4 | — | 320 | — | 5 | 6 | 5 | — | 1 | 128.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 32.7 | 9 | 13 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 367.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 89.9 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year history illustrates how wide DST variance can run. Points allowed ranged from 320 in 2025 to 417 in 2024. Sacks ranged from 28 to 36. Interceptions held steadier, landing at 10 in both 2023 and 2025 with a dip to 7 in 2024. Defensive touchdowns are the most volatile line: 1 in 2023, 0 in 2024, 4 in 2025. That single category can swing a DST's fantasy value by 20 or more points in a season, and the Patriots have shown both extremes of it. A repeat of the 2025 defensive touchdown rate alongside continued sack production would push the unit well above the current projection. A reversion toward the 2024 profile, with fewer touchdowns and more points allowed, would confirm the below-replacement-level outlook.
How to draft him
The Patriots are not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no pick cost to plan around and no round to target. At DST24 and #189 overall with a negative draft value, this is a late-round or streaming option at best. The projection of 104.2 points reflects a unit that is below replacement level in this format. Drafters who want a handcuff or a bye-week fill-in can circle Week 11 on the calendar and plan accordingly, but the numbers do not support spending meaningful draft capital here.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 104.2 points with a draft value of -41.6, placing them below replacement level at DST24 and #189 overall in Tier 9. The numbers frame this as a streaming or depth option rather than a unit to invest in early.
Over the 2023-2025 window they averaged 32.7 sacks, 9 interceptions, 7.3 fumble recoveries, and 1.7 defensive touchdowns per season. Points allowed averaged 367.7 per year, with a low of 320 in 2025 and a high of 417 in 2024.
Significantly. The Patriots posted 1 defensive touchdown in 2023, 0 in 2024, and 4 in 2025. That kind of swing can move a DST's fantasy total by 20 or more points in a season, making the touchdown rate the single biggest variable in their range of outcomes.
Their bye is Week 11. If you carry them as a streaming option, plan to find a replacement that week. Given their below-replacement-level projection, most drafters will treat them as a fill-in rather than a locked starter, so the bye is a manageable consideration rather than a dealbreaker.
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Beyond the rankings
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