Mark Andrews — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Mark Andrews has posted back-to-back seasons of 61 and 69 targets, capping the two-year run with 11 receiving touchdowns in 2024. Over the last three seasons his per-year averages sit at 66.7 targets, 49.3 receptions, 546.3 receiving yards, and 7.3 receiving touchdowns. That touchdown rate is the clearest argument in his favor: a tight end who averages more than seven scores a year carries real upside in half-PPR formats. The 2025 season added a new wrinkle, with 10 rush attempts, 48 rush yards, and a rushing touchdown, bringing his three-year rushing average to 5 attempts and 17.7 yards per season. The floor is real receiving production in a Baltimore offense that has consistently fed him targets.

What the model projects

The projection is 81.9 half-PPR fantasy points. Andrews sits at TE20 and #176 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -40.4, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 81.9 points is the point estimate; the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 88.3 points, a modest gap above the point estimate that reflects the shape of his outcome distribution.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 32.4 points, a figure that reflects how badly a tight end season can collapse. The 25th percentile lands at 57.2 points, still a difficult fantasy contribution. The median sits at 88.3 points, the 75th percentile reaches 111.4, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 141.0 points. That 141.0 ceiling is meaningful: a season in that range would represent a genuine fantasy asset. The spread from p10 to p90 covers more than 108 points, which is a substantial range and signals that Andrews carries considerable season-to-season variance. His 2023 line of 45 receptions, 544 yards, and 6 touchdowns on 61 targets, compared to his 2024 line of 55 receptions, 673 yards, and 11 touchdowns on 69 targets, illustrates how much the outcome can shift from one year to the next.

How to draft him

Andrews is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. What the numbers do tell you is that at TE20 and #176 overall in Tier 9, the model places him below replacement level for the position. His bye falls in Week 13, a point in the season when roster management matters. If you are targeting him, the lack of a market price means you may find him available deep in drafts or on the waiver wire, but the -40.4 draft value means the projection does not support spending an early or mid-round pick to secure him. He is a late-round or post-draft option for a drafter who believes the high end of his outcome band is the more likely result.

The model projects him at 81.9 points, ranks him TE20, and assigns a draft value of -40.4, placing him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His three-year average of 7.3 receiving touchdowns per season keeps a ceiling in play, but the projection and rank suggest he is not a reliable starter at the position.

Andrews has seen 61, 69, and 70 targets in 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, for a three-year average of 66.7 targets per season. That is a consistent volume of opportunity, even as his receiving yards and touchdowns have varied across those years.

The simulated season band runs from 32.4 points at the 10th percentile to 141.0 points at the 90th percentile, a spread of more than 108 points. The median simulated season is 88.3 points. That range signals meaningful variance: a bad season looks very different from a good one.

Andrews does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. His rank of #176 overall and TE20 position in Tier 9 place him at the back end of the position. He is a candidate to be available in the final rounds of a draft or as a free agent after it.