#163 overall · GB · 214.8 projected half-PPR pts · -33.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 147.1
Jordan Love — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Three full seasons as a starter are on the books for the Green Bay quarterback, and the aggregate tells a coherent story. Over 2023-2025, the three-year averages land at 3,643 passing yards, 26.7 passing touchdowns, 40.7 rush attempts, and 176.3 rush yards per season. The 2025 interception total of 6 was the cleanest of the three years, down from 11 in each of the prior two seasons. The rushing contribution is real: 50 attempts and 247 yards in 2023, 47 attempts and 199 yards in 2025. For a drafter willing to wait at quarterback, the floor here is a known quantity, and the ceiling in 2023 — 4,159 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, 4 rushing scores — shows what the upside looks like when everything clicks.
What the model projects
The projection for Love is 221.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -32.6, placing him QB20 and #161 overall in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection falls below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That context matters when deciding how much draft capital to commit.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 579 | 372 | 4159 | 32 | 11 | 50 | 247 | 4 | 8 | 326.1 |
| 2024 | 425 | 268 | 3389 | 25 | 11 | 25 | 83 | 1 | 4 | 238.9 |
| 2025 | 439 | 291 | 3381 | 23 | 6 | 47 | 199 | — | 5 | 237.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 481 | 310.3 | 3643 | 26.7 | 9.3 | 40.7 | 176.3 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 271.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The 10th-percentile outcome is 78.8 points — a genuinely difficult season. The 25th percentile comes in at 145.4, and the median simulated season lands at 203.9. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 276.2 points and the 90th percentile reaches 337.3. That spread from p10 to p90 — 78.8 to 337.3 — is among the wider outcome bands a drafter will encounter at the position, reflecting real season-to-season variance in the three-year record. The 2024 stat line (268 completions, 3,389 yards, 25 touchdowns on 425 attempts) versus the 2023 line (372 completions, 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns on 579 attempts) illustrates exactly how much the floor and ceiling can diverge.
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our projection
How to draft him
Love's market ADP is 150.6, drawn from two platforms, which works out to pick 13.07 in a 12-team draft. That is a 13th-round pick. His bye is Week 11. At QB20 with a negative draft value, the standard approach is to let the position fill itself earlier and treat Love as a late-round dart. If a drafter is running a two-quarterback strategy or needs a streaming option with upside, the 13th round is when the market says a pick is required to secure him.
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Questions drafters ask
The three-year averages (2023-2025) are 3,643 passing yards, 26.7 passing touchdowns, 9.3 interceptions, 40.7 rush attempts, and 176.3 rush yards per season. His best season was 2023: 4,159 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, and 4 rushing scores. His interception rate improved in 2025, dropping to 6 after back-to-back seasons of 11.
The projection is 221.3 half-PPR points. His draft value is -32.6, which means the projection falls below the replacement-level threshold at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks QB20 and #161 overall in Tier 9.
The simulated season band runs from 78.8 points at the 10th percentile to 337.3 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 203.9 points. The downside is real: a 10th-percentile season at 78.8 points would be a significant drag on a roster.
His market ADP is 150.6 across two platforms, which translates to pick 13.07 in a 12-team draft. That is a 13th-round pick. His bye week is 11.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.