#251 overall · NE · 54.8 projected half-PPR pts · -60.5 Draft Value
Mack Hollins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Mack Hollins has posted three consecutive seasons of positive receiving production, and his 2025 campaign was the best of the three: 65 targets, 46 receptions, 550 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. That target share represents a meaningful step up from the 50 targets he saw in 2024 and the 30 he saw in 2023. The three-year averages tell a similar story of gradual growth: 48.3 targets, 31.7 receptions, 393 receiving yards, and 2.3 receiving touchdowns per season. He also added 5 receiving touchdowns in 2024, showing he can find the end zone when opportunity aligns. For a drafter building out the back end of a roster, Hollins has a real track record of being on the field and being used.
What the model projects
The projection is 55.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Hollins at WR90 and #272 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -72.5, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 55.6 points is the model's single point estimate for the season.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30 | 18 | 251 | — | — | — | — | 34.1 |
| 2024 | 50 | 31 | 378 | 5 | — | — | — | 83.3 |
| 2025 | 65 | 46 | 550 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 90.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 48.3 | 31.7 | 393 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 69.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Hollins's outlook. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 2.4 points; the 25th percentile reaches only 16.0. The median simulated season comes in at 37.3 points, well below the 55.6 point estimate, which signals that the distribution is skewed toward the upside. The 75th percentile is 70.6 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 113.7 points. That upper tail is real, but so is the floor: in a bad season, Hollins contributes almost nothing to a fantasy roster. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is over 111 points, making him one of the higher-variance options at the position.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Hollins is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick number to plan around. He is a Tier 9 player ranked WR90 and #272 overall, with a negative draft value. In practice, he is a late-roster add or a waiver-wire target rather than a pick you budget for in advance. His bye is Week 11. If you do roster him, the wide outcome band means you are accepting a high-variance depth piece: the upside at the 90th percentile is meaningful, but the median and lower percentiles reflect a player who may not contribute in a typical season.
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Questions drafters ask
It has grown each year: 30 targets in 2023, 50 in 2024, and 65 in 2025. His three-year average is 48.3 targets per season.
The projection is 55.6 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks WR90 and #272 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -72.5, placing him below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
He does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to have one. He is a back-of-roster or waiver-wire option rather than a player you need to target with a specific pick.
Very wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 2.4 points and the 90th percentile is 113.7 points, with a median of 37.3 points. The floor is near zero and the ceiling is a useful fantasy contributor, but the typical outcome sits well below the point estimate.
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Beyond the rankings
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