#250 overall · ARI · 50.0 projected half-PPR pts · -60.2 Draft Value
James Conner — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the numbers say so plainly. James Conner posted back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons in 2023 and 2024, carrying 208 and 236 times respectively while adding 27 and 47 receptions. The 2024 season in particular showed genuine receiving growth: 55 targets, 414 receiving yards, and a combined nine touchdowns. That two-year stretch is the foundation any drafter would point to. The three-year averages reflect it partially: 158.7 rush attempts, 743 rush yards, 27.3 receptions, and 5.3 rushing touchdowns per season. If that version of Conner is what shows up, the upside exists. The 2025 stat line, however, was a sharp departure: 32 rush attempts, 95 rush yards, 8 receptions, and 2 total touchdowns. That is the context the projection is working from.
What the model projects
The projection is 38.2 half-PPR fantasy points. Conner sits at RB74 and #337 overall, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -90.2, which means the projection lands well below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where the model lands given the full picture of his recent history, including the 2025 season.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 208 | 1040 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 165 | 2 | — | 188.0 |
| 2024 | 236 | 1094 | 8 | 55 | 47 | 414 | 1 | 4 | 226.3 |
| 2025 | 32 | 95 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 29.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 158.7 | 743 | 5.3 | 32.3 | 27.3 | 205.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 148.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.7 points: in the worst 10% of simulated seasons, Conner is essentially a non-factor. The p25 is 9.2 points and the median simulated season lands at 25.9 points. The upside exists but requires things to break right: the p75 is 57.1 points and the p90 reaches 85.6. That top-decile outcome would represent a meaningful fantasy contributor, but the median and lower percentiles tell the more likely story. The gap between the p50 and p90 is over 59 points, which signals a high-variance profile. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the projection's headline number.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Conner does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At RB74 and #337 overall with a draft value of -90.2, he sits deep in Tier 9. His bye is Week 14. In a standard 12-team snake draft, he is a late-round or undrafted consideration at best, and only in formats where roster depth or handcuff speculation is a factor. The projection and the outcome band both point toward a player who is more likely to finish below replacement level than above it. Draft him only if you have a specific roster construction reason to do so, and only after your meaningful picks are spent.
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Questions drafters ask
At RB74 and #337 overall with a draft value of -90.2, the projection places him well below replacement level. The projection is 38.2 half-PPR points and the median simulated season is 25.9 points. He is not a player the rankings support targeting as part of a core roster strategy.
In 2023 he rushed 208 times for 1,040 yards and 7 touchdowns, adding 27 receptions for 165 yards. In 2024 he rushed 236 times for 1,094 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 47 receptions for 414 yards on 55 targets. In 2025 those numbers dropped sharply to 32 rush attempts, 95 rush yards, and 2 total touchdowns.
The p90 outcome is 85.6 half-PPR points, which represents the top 10% of simulated seasons. The p75 is 57.1 points. Those figures show upside exists, but the median simulated season is 25.9 points and the p10 is just 0.7, so the distribution is heavily weighted toward low-end outcomes.
Conner does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is effectively an undrafted or deep-waiver-wire player in most 2026 snake drafts.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.