#252 overall · GB · 49.7 projected half-PPR pts · -60.5 Draft Value
Josh Jacobs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Josh Jacobs has been a workhorse back for three straight seasons. He averaged 256 rush attempts per year from 2023 through 2025, topping 300 carries in 2024 when he posted 1,329 rush yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. Even in a quieter 2025, he logged 234 attempts, 929 rush yards, and 13 rushing touchdowns. The receiving work is consistent too: 36 receptions in each of the last two seasons, with targets in the 43-to-54 range across all three years. The three-year averages tell the story plainly: 1,021 rush yards, 11.3 rushing touchdowns, 36.3 receptions, and 306.7 receiving yards per season. That is a high-volume, dual-contribution profile that has held its shape across different situations.
What the model projects
The projection for Jacobs is 86.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -41.2, placing him RB41 and #181 overall in Tier 9. That is a significant step down from the production his recent history shows, and the projection reflects a reduced baseline relative to his peak 2024 season. His bye week is Week 11.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 233 | 805 | 6 | 54 | 37 | 296 | — | 3 | 162.6 |
| 2024 | 301 | 1329 | 15 | 43 | 36 | 342 | 1 | 4 | 275.1 |
| 2025 | 234 | 929 | 13 | 44 | 36 | 282 | 1 | 3 | 219.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 256 | 1021 | 11.3 | 47 | 36.3 | 306.7 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 222.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 15.7 points, and the 25th percentile is 41.7. The median simulated season comes in at 84.6 points, close to the 86.3 point estimate. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 127.5 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons reaches 175.9. That spread from 15.7 to 175.9 is among the widest variance profiles you will find at the position, meaning the floor is genuinely low and the ceiling is genuinely high. Fumbles are a factor worth noting: Jacobs has fumbled at least three times in each of the last three seasons, losing two or more in two of those years. In a season where the ball stays secure and touchdowns cluster, the 90th-percentile outcome is a productive fantasy contributor. In a season where the bottom falls out, the 10th-percentile number is nearly worthless.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Jacobs at pick 66.3 on average, which works out to the 6th round, 6th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the window you are working with if you want him. His projection of 86.3 points and Tier 9 placement at #181 overall tell you what the numbers say about his expected contribution. The gap between where the market is drafting him and where the model ranks him is real and worth understanding before you commit a sixth-round pick. If you do target him, go in with eyes open on the variance: the band runs from 15.7 to 175.9, so the outcome range is genuinely wide in both directions.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the last three seasons he averaged 256 rush attempts, 1,021 rush yards, 11.3 rushing touchdowns, 36.3 receptions, and 306.7 receiving yards per year. His peak was 2024: 301 attempts, 1,329 rush yards, and 15 rushing touchdowns.
Jacobs projects for 86.3 half-PPR fantasy points, ranks RB41 at the position, and sits #181 overall in Tier 9 with a draft value of -41.2.
The market is taking him at an average of pick 66.3, which is round 6, pick 6 in a 12-team draft. That is the price the market is currently charging.
The simulated season band runs from 15.7 points at the 10th percentile to 175.9 at the 90th, with a median of 84.6. The downside is real: Jacobs has fumbled at least three times in each of the last three seasons, losing two or more in two of those years, which is a recurring floor risk.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.