#943 overall · SF · 60.2 projected half-PPR pts · -187.6 Draft Value
Mac Jones — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and honesty demands saying so upfront. Mac Jones lands at QB38 with a draftValue of -193.7, meaning the projection sits well below replacement level at the position. His three-year averages tell a consistent story: 298.7 pass attempts, 1,981 passing yards, and 10.3 passing touchdowns per season. The 2025 season showed the best interception rate of the three years on record, dropping to 6 picks on 289 attempts, and his 13 passing touchdowns that year were a three-year high. There is a floor argument built on familiarity with a new system and a modest rushing contribution, averaging 30 rush attempts and 82.7 rush yards per season over the three-year window. That is the full extent of the positive case.
What the model projects
The projection is 60.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That number places Jones at #941 overall and QB38. He sits in Tier 9. A draftValue of -193.7 reflects a projection that falls significantly short of what a replacement-level quarterback provides in a 12-team half-PPR format. The bye week is 8. These are the numbers as they stand.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 345 | 224 | 2120 | 10 | 12 | 26 | 96 | — | 3 | 118.4 |
| 2024 | 262 | 171 | 1672 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 102.1 |
| 2025 | 289 | 201 | 2151 | 13 | 6 | 36 | 60 | — | 4 | 134.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 298.7 | 198.7 | 1981 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 30 | 82.7 | 0.3 | 3 | 121.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The median simulated season (p50) lands at just 20.6 points. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 0.0 points, and the 25th percentile is 10.7. Even the 75th percentile reaches only 68.0 points. A top-10-percent season (p90) produces 131.4 points, which remains a modest total at the quarterback position. The distance between the p25 and p90 outcomes is over 120 points, signaling that the range of plausible seasons is extremely broad. Most of the probability mass sits in territory that offers little fantasy value.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Jones is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor a drafting strategy around. In practice, he is a late-emergency option: a quarterback you add only if your starter is unavailable and the waiver wire has been exhausted. His -193.7 draftValue and QB38 rank make him a depth consideration at best. If you are carrying two quarterbacks, the second slot should be filled well before you reach Jones on the list. His bye in Week 8 is worth noting for scheduling purposes, but it is secondary to the larger question of whether he belongs on your roster at all.
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Questions drafters ask
The numbers argue against it. Jones projects at 60.2 half-PPR points with a draftValue of -193.7, placing him at QB38 and #941 overall in Tier 9. His median simulated season lands at just 20.6 points. He is a last-resort option, not a planned backup.
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, Jones averaged 298.7 pass attempts, 1,981 passing yards, 10.3 passing touchdowns, and 8.7 interceptions per season. His best single-season passing touchdown total in that window was 13 in 2025, and his lowest interception total was 6, also in 2025.
The p90 simulated season, representing the top 10 percent of projected outcomes, produces 131.4 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile lands at 68.0 points. Even in favorable scenarios the totals remain modest at the quarterback position.
Jones does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. There is no defined pick window to plan around. He is a waiver-wire or final-round emergency add rather than a player to target with a draft pick.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.