#944 overall · NYG · 59.8 projected half-PPR pts · -188.0 Draft Value
Russell Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the facts say so plainly. Russell Wilson lands at QB39 and #909 overall in a Tier 9 projection, with a draftValue of -198.4 points below replacement level at the position. His three-year averages across 2023-2025 show 2,127.7 passing yards, 15 touchdown passes, and 5.3 interceptions per season, with 6 fumbles per year. The 2025 season produced just 831 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, and 3 interceptions on 119 attempts. The numbers do not build a case for drafting him in any meaningful fantasy context. If there is a scenario where he belongs on a roster, it is as a deep emergency option on a large-format bench, and even then the math is working against you.
What the model projects
The projection is 59.8 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That is the headline number, and it sits well below what a startable fantasy quarterback typically delivers. The draftValue of -198.4 reflects how far below replacement level that projection falls at the QB position. His three-year averages give context: 300.7 pass attempts, 193.3 completions, 2,127.7 passing yards, 15 touchdown passes, 1.7 rushing touchdowns, and 47 rush attempts per season. The 2024 line was 2,482 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, and 5 interceptions on 336 attempts. The 2025 line dropped sharply: 831 yards, 3 touchdowns, 3 interceptions on 119 attempts.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 447 | 297 | 3070 | 26 | 8 | 80 | 341 | 3 | 10 | 260.9 |
| 2024 | 336 | 214 | 2482 | 16 | 5 | 43 | 155 | 2 | 5 | 177.8 |
| 2025 | 119 | 69 | 831 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 106 | — | 3 | 52.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 300.7 | 193.3 | 2127.7 | 15 | 5.3 | 47 | 200.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 170.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces nothing. The p25 is 11.0 points. The median simulated season lands at 20.9 points, well below the projection's 59.8 point estimate, which signals the distribution is pulled upward by a long right tail. The p75 is 68.6 points and the p90 reaches 130.2 points. That top-decile outcome is the only scenario where Wilson approaches fantasy relevance, and even 130.2 points is a modest total for a quarterback. The floor is essentially zero. The ceiling is limited. The median tells the most honest story.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Wilson does not have a market ADP, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to register one. At #909 overall and QB39 in Tier 9, with a draftValue of -198.4, he is not a player to target in any standard 12-team snake draft. If a specific roster situation demands a deep-bench quarterback late in an extended draft, he is available, but the projection and the outcome band both argue against allocating a pick here. There are no rounds to plan around. He is a waiver-wire name, not a draft-day decision.
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Questions drafters ask
The numbers make it difficult to justify. Wilson is ranked QB39 and #909 overall in Tier 9, with a draftValue of -198.4 and a projection of 59.8 half-PPR points. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted across public platforms. The median simulated season is 20.9 points. He is not a target in standard formats.
His three-year averages (2023-2025) are 2,127.7 passing yards, 15 touchdown passes, 1.7 rushing touchdowns, 5.3 interceptions, and 6 fumbles per season. The 2025 season was the lightest of the three: 831 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions, and 106 rushing yards on 18 attempts across 119 pass attempts.
The p90 of the simulated outcome band is 130.2 half-PPR points. That top-decile result represents the ceiling across simulated seasons. The p75 is 68.6 points. Both figures are modest for a quarterback position.
The p10 of the outcome band is 0.0 points, and the p25 is 11.0 points. The median simulated season is 20.9 points. The bottom half of simulated outcomes produces fewer than 21 fantasy points for the entire season, which is a significant floor risk.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.