#942 overall · MIA · 60.8 projected half-PPR pts · -187.0 Draft Value
Malik Willis — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Malik Willis is a QB with a legitimate dual-threat floor. In 2024 he posted 550 passing yards, 138 rushing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown on just 54 pass attempts and 20 rush attempts. In 2025 he followed with 422 passing yards, 123 rushing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, and 2 rushing touchdowns on 35 pass attempts and 22 rush attempts. The rushing contribution is real and consistent: across three seasons his per-year averages include 94 rush yards and 15.7 rush attempts. For a drafter who needs a late-round QB stash, that rushing floor is the argument. He now plays for Miami, with a bye in Week 6.
What the model projects
The projection is 170.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -90.7, placing him #333 overall and QB29 in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement-level projection at the position. The median simulated season lands at 143.2 points, which is below the 170.6 point estimate, reflecting an asymmetric distribution in his outcome band.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5 | 4 | 74 | — | 5 | 21 | — | 1 | 3.1 |
| 2024 | 54 | 40 | 550 | 3 | 20 | 138 | 1 | 1 | 51.8 |
| 2025 | 35 | 30 | 422 | 3 | 22 | 123 | 2 | 2 | 51.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 31.3 | 24.7 | 348.7 | 2 | 15.7 | 94 | 1 | 1.3 | 37.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of outcomes land at or below 46.9 points. The 25th percentile is 96.0 points. The median sits at 143.2 points. The 75th percentile reaches 217.7 points, and the top 10% of outcomes come in at or above 282.0 points. That is a spread of more than 235 points between the p10 and p90, which reflects genuine uncertainty about how much playing time and opportunity Willis will see. The upside is real; so is the floor risk. His three-year average of 1.3 fumbles per season and 1 fumble lost per season is a small but consistent negative in any outcome.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Willis is currently being drafted at pick 184.0 on average across two platforms, which works out to round 16, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. The model has him at #333 overall and QB29. At that draft slot, he is a deep-bench stash rather than a starter. Target him only if you have already secured a reliable starting quarterback and want a high-variance backup with rushing upside. His Week 6 bye is worth noting for roster management. Do not reach for him before the final rounds; his current market draft position already puts him in the late-round range where the risk is manageable.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 170.6 points and his draft value is -90.7, making him QB29 and #333 overall in Tier 9. That is a below-replacement-level outlook, so he is not a recommended starting option. He is a late-round stash with upside, not a reliable weekly starter.
It is consistent but modest. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 94 rush yards and 15.7 rush attempts per year. In 2024 he totaled 138 rush yards and 1 rushing touchdown; in 2025 he added 123 rush yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. That dual-threat element is the primary reason to roster him late.
Very wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 46.9 points; the top 10% finish at or above 282.0 points. The median simulated season is 143.2 points. A drafter should expect significant variance in either direction.
The market ADP is 184.0, or round 16, pick 4 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That puts him firmly in the final rounds, which aligns with his role as a depth stash rather than a featured pick.
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Beyond the rankings
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