J.J. McCarthy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The case is thin, and honesty demands saying so upfront. McCarthy's 2025 season produced 1,632 passing yards, 140 completions on 243 attempts, 11 passing touchdowns, 4 rushing touchdowns, and 181 rushing yards across 37 carries. Those are the only NFL numbers on record, and the three-year aggregate matches them exactly, meaning 2025 is the entirety of his professional history. For a drafter hunting a late-flier at quarterback, the rushing contribution is the one thread worth pulling: 4 rushing touchdowns and 181 yards on 37 attempts show a player who can move, and that floor matters in half-PPR formats. That is the argument. It is a speculative one.

What the model projects

The projection is 65.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at QB37 and #940 overall, placing McCarthy in Tier 9. His draft value is -195.6, which is below replacement level at the quarterback position. These numbers reflect a player who, at current projection, does not return value relative to what a drafter could acquire at the position without spending a meaningful pick. Minnesota's Week 6 bye is also worth noting for roster-management purposes.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band here is unusually wide and skewed, and that is the most important thing to understand about McCarthy as a fantasy asset. The p10 is 0.0 points: in the worst 10% of simulated seasons, he scores nothing. The p25 is 13.1 points. The median simulated season lands at just 24.2 points. The p75 reaches 77.8 and the p90 climbs to 142.8. That shape tells you this is a high-variance, low-floor situation. The upside exists, but the most likely outcome is a season that produces very little fantasy value. A drafter who rostered him in 2025 saw 12 interceptions and 5 fumbles against 15 total touchdowns, which is the kind of turnover rate that compresses scoring in a hurry.

How to draft him

McCarthy has no market ADP available across tracked platforms, which means he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 leagues. In practice, that makes him a free agent in most formats rather than a draft-day decision. If he does appear on a draft list, his rank of #940 overall and QB37 position rank place him at the very back of the quarterback pool. He belongs, at most, as a late-round handcuff or a post-draft waiver target in deeper leagues. Do not spend a pick you need on a player whose median simulated season is 24.2 points. The upside at p90 is real, but the floor at p10 is zero.

At QB37 and #940 overall with a draft value of -195.6, McCarthy projects below replacement level. He has no market ADP across tracked platforms, meaning most drafters are not spending picks on him at all. In a standard 12-team league he is a waiver-wire name, not a draft-day target.

In 2025 he completed 140 of 243 passes for 1,632 yards, threw 11 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions, added 181 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on 37 carries, and fumbled 5 times, losing 2. That is the only professional season on record, and the three-year aggregate is identical to it.

The p90 outcome, meaning the top 10% of simulated seasons, lands at 142.8 half-PPR points. That is a meaningful number for a late-roster quarterback. The catch is that the median simulated season is only 24.2 points and the p25 is 13.1, so the upside scenario is a genuine outlier, not the base case.

It is the strongest element of his profile. Four rushing touchdowns and 181 yards on 37 attempts in 2025 show real mobility, and rushing production adds half-PPR value that pure pocket passers cannot match. Even so, the projection is 65.8 points and the draft value remains negative, so the rushing contribution does not move him into startable territory at current numbers.