#199 overall · LV · 96.3 projected half-PPR pts · -49.5 Draft Value
Las Vegas Raiders — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the numbers say so plainly. Over the past three seasons the Raiders have averaged 39.7 sacks, 10.3 interceptions, and 6.7 fumble recoveries per year. The 2023 season was the high-water mark: 46 sacks, 13 interceptions, 9 fumble recoveries, and 3 defensive touchdowns, with opponents held to 6 points or fewer in 2 games and 331 total points allowed. That version of this unit could contribute in a streaming role. The problem is that 2023 looks like the outlier. The two seasons since have told a different story, and the projection reflects it.
What the model projects
The projection is 96.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That produces a draft value of -49.5, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The Raiders rank DST27 at the position and #206 overall, placing them in Tier 9.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 46 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 3 | — | 331 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 143.0 |
| 2024 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | 434 | — | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 70.0 |
| 2025 | 36 | 8 | 10 | 8 | — | 1 | 432 | — | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 83.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 39.7 | 10.3 | 10 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 399 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 92.1 |
The range of outcomes
The recent trend is not encouraging. Points allowed climbed from 331 in 2023 to 434 in 2024 and 432 in 2025. Sacks dropped from 46 in 2023 to 37 in 2024 and 36 in 2025. Interceptions fell from 13 in 2023 to 10 in 2024 and 8 in 2025. Fumbles forced dropped from 14 in 2023 to 6 in 2024, then recovered to 10 in 2025. On the scoring-defense side, the Raiders allowed 28 or more points in 8 games across 2024 and 2025 combined, compared to 3 such games in 2023. In 2023 they held opponents to 6 points or fewer in 2 games; that number was zero in both 2024 and 2025. A rebound toward 2023 levels is the upside scenario. The recent baseline is the more likely one.
How to draft him
The Raiders are not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to have a market ADP. At DST27 and #206 overall with a negative draft value, this unit belongs at the very back of any draft queue. A bye in Week 13 adds a scheduling wrinkle for managers who reach the fantasy playoffs. If you roster this defense, plan to stream a replacement during that week. There is no reason to spend a meaningful pick here when the projection sits below replacement level.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 96.3 points with a draft value of -49.5, placing them below replacement level at DST27 and #206 overall in Tier 9. The numbers do not support rostering them as anything other than a last-resort streamer.
Points allowed rose from 331 in 2023 to 434 in 2024 and 432 in 2025. Sacks fell from 46 to 37 to 36. Interceptions dropped from 13 to 10 to 8. The three-year averages are 39.7 sacks, 10.3 interceptions, and 6.7 fumble recoveries per season.
Their bye falls in Week 13, which overlaps with the start of most fantasy playoffs. Any manager who rostered them would need a streaming replacement that week.
In 2023 they held opponents to 6 points or fewer in 2 games and allowed 28 or more points in just 3 games. In 2024 and 2025 combined, they allowed 28 or more points in 8 games, and had no games where they held opponents to 6 points or fewer.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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