#198 overall · NO · 61.2 projected half-PPR pts · -49.0 Draft Value
Alvin Kamara — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kamara's 2024 season is the argument. He carried the ball 228 times for 950 yards and six rushing touchdowns, caught 68 passes on 89 targets for 543 receiving yards and two more scores. That is a full-season workload from a back who has consistently commanded a heavy target share out of the backfield. The three-year averages back it up: 179.7 rush attempts, 71.3 targets, 58.7 receptions, and 705 rushing yards per season. The receiving volume alone keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even when the ground game is modest. If 2024 is the baseline, there is a real player here.
What the model projects
The projection is 75.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Kamara at RB45 and #205 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -54.1, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate is modest, and the median simulated season of 69.9 points is close to it, confirming this is not a case where the distribution is pulling the headline number in an unusual direction.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 180 | 694 | 5 | 86 | 75 | 466 | 1 | — | 189.5 |
| 2024 | 228 | 950 | 6 | 89 | 68 | 543 | 2 | 1 | 231.3 |
| 2025 | 131 | 471 | 1 | 39 | 33 | 186 | — | 2 | 84.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 179.7 | 705 | 4 | 71.3 | 58.7 | 398.3 | 1 | 1 | 169.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 10.6 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 32.4. The median is 69.9. Climb to the 75th percentile and the number jumps to 112.2; the top-10% threshold is 158.5 points. That is a substantial spread from floor to ceiling. The 2025 season illustrates the downside: 131 rush attempts, 471 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 33 receptions, 186 receiving yards, and two fumbles lost. The 2024 season illustrates the upside. Both outcomes are plausible, and the band reflects that tension directly.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Kamara at pick 161.2 on average, which works out to the 14th round, 5th pick in a 12-team draft (based on two platform sources). The model has him at #205 overall. At his ADP, he is a late-round selection. Given the negative draft value and the wide downside in the outcome band, he fits best as a depth add rather than a core piece of a roster. His bye is Week 8, worth noting when constructing late-round depth. If the 2024 version shows up, the late-round cost looks fine; if the 2025 version repeats, the floor is very low.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 75.4 points and a draft value of -54.1 put him below replacement level at RB in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks RB45 and #205 overall in Tier 9. That said, his market ADP of 161.2 (round 14.05) means the cost is low, and his 90th-percentile outcome of 158.5 points shows meaningful upside if conditions break right.
The 2025 numbers were a step back across the board: 131 rush attempts, 471 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 33 receptions on 39 targets, 186 receiving yards, and two fumbles lost. Compare that to 2024's 228 carries, 950 yards, six rushing touchdowns, and 68 catches on 89 targets. The three-year averages (179.7 rush attempts, 705 rush yards, 71.3 targets) sit between those two seasons, and the wide outcome band from 10.6 to 158.5 points reflects exactly that kind of year-to-year variance.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 10.6 fantasy points for the season, and the 25th percentile is 32.4. Those are very low floors. The 2025 stat line, with just one rushing touchdown and two fumbles lost, shows the floor is not theoretical.
Based on a median across two platforms, he is currently going at pick 161.2, which is round 14, pick 5 in a 12-team draft. That is deep enough that he will likely be available well into the final rounds of most drafts.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.