#197 overall · NYG · 66.7 projected half-PPR pts · -48.6 Draft Value
Darnell Mooney — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2024 season is the clearest argument for Darnell Mooney. He posted 992 receiving yards, 64 receptions, 106 targets, and 5 receiving touchdowns, demonstrating that a full workload can produce a legitimate fantasy contributor. That target volume, 106 in a single season, shows he can function as a primary option in a passing offense. His three-year averages back that up to a degree: 79.7 targets, 42.3 receptions, and 616.3 receiving yards per season. The touchdowns have been inconsistent, averaging 2.3 per year across the three-season window, but the 2024 output shows the ceiling is real when the opportunity is there.
What the model projects
The projection for Mooney is 64.5 half-PPR fantasy points this season. He ranks #256 overall and WR85, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -64.2, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where he stands in the current rankings, not where he has been.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 61 | 31 | 414 | 1 | 2 | 5 | — | 63.4 |
| 2024 | 106 | 64 | 992 | 5 | — | — | — | 161.2 |
| 2025 | 72 | 32 | 443 | 1 | — | — | 2 | 66.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 79.7 | 42.3 | 616.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 96.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Mooney's outlook. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 5.7 points. The 25th percentile is 21.3 points. The median simulated season comes in at 45.7 points, well below the point estimate of 64.5. The 75th percentile reaches 80.0 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons hits 126.5 points. That gap between the p10 and p90, from 5.7 to 126.5, is substantial. The median and the point estimate diverge noticeably, and the upside tail is long. This is a high-variance profile: most simulated seasons cluster in a modest range, but the top outcomes are meaningful.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Mooney does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At #256 overall and WR85 in Tier 9, with a negative draft value, he is a late-roster or waiver-wire consideration rather than a pick you plan around. His bye is Week 8. If you are targeting him, the 2024 target share and yardage total are the facts worth holding onto; the three-year averages and the 2025 line are the caution. The wide outcome band means the upside is real but the floor is very low. Roster him only if you have the depth to absorb the downside.
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Questions drafters ask
He ranks #256 overall and WR85 in Tier 9 with a draft value of -64.2, placing him below replacement level. There is no market ADP available, so he is not being consistently drafted. The projection is 64.5 half-PPR points, and the median simulated season is 45.7. He is a depth or waiver consideration, not a planned pick.
Over the last three seasons he has averaged 79.7 targets, 42.3 receptions, 616.3 receiving yards, and 2.3 receiving touchdowns per year. The 2024 season was the high-water mark: 106 targets, 64 receptions, 992 yards, and 5 touchdowns. The 2023 and 2025 seasons were considerably lighter, with 61 and 72 targets and 414 and 443 receiving yards respectively.
Very wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 5.7 points and the 90th percentile is 126.5 points. The median simulated season is 45.7 points, which is notably below the 64.5-point projection. Most simulated seasons land in a modest range, but the upside tail extends to a genuinely useful fantasy total.
He fumbled twice in 2025. Over the three-year aggregate window the average is 0.7 fumbles per season, so 2025 was above that average. It is a factor worth noting for a player whose overall projection is already below replacement level.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.