#97 overall · WAS · 106.9 projected half-PPR pts · -8.3 Draft Value
Terry McLaurin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
McLaurin has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons, hitting 1,002 yards on 79 catches in 2023 and then elevating to 1,096 yards on 82 catches with 13 receiving touchdowns in 2024. That touchdown total is the kind of number that changes a receiver's fantasy profile entirely. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averages 103 targets, 66.3 receptions, 893.3 receiving yards, and 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season. The target volume has been consistent, and the 2024 touchdown rate shows what the ceiling looks like when things break right. He sits in Tier 7 of the overall rankings with a positive draft value of +14.9, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the wide receiver position. WR24 is a real contributor in 12-team half-PPR formats, and the underlying volume history supports that standing.
What the model projects
The projection is 143.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. His draft value is +14.9, placing him #52 overall and WR24 in Tier 7. The median simulated season lands at 150.9 points, which sits just above the point estimate. His bye week is Week 7.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 132 | 79 | 1002 | 4 | — | — | — | 163.7 |
| 2024 | 117 | 82 | 1096 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 226.8 |
| 2025 | 60 | 38 | 582 | 3 | — | — | — | 95.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 103 | 66.3 | 893.3 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 162.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which reflects genuine variance in McLaurin's profile. In a bottom-10% season, the projection lands at 67.0 points. The 25th percentile is 107.2 points. The median is 150.9 points. A 75th-percentile season reaches 185.0 points, and a top-10% outcome climbs to 219.6 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 is more than 150 points, so the range of realistic outcomes is substantial. The 2025 stat line of 582 yards, 38 catches, and 3 touchdowns on 60 targets anchors the lower end of what that band is describing. The 2024 line of 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns anchors the upper end. Both are real data points, and the band reflects that both kinds of seasons are in play.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
McLaurin is ranked #52 overall and WR24. The market is currently drafting him at pick 50.8, which works out to the 3rd pick of the 5th round in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window you are working with. If you want him, plan to spend a pick in that range. He is a Tier 7 asset with a positive draft value, and the volume history over three seasons supports treating him as a reliable WR2 target in the mid-rounds. His Week 7 bye is worth noting for roster management purposes.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 103 targets per season over the 2023-2025 window. The individual season totals are 132 in 2023, 117 in 2024, and 60 in 2025.
Significant. He caught 4 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 13 in 2024, and 3 in 2025, for a three-year average of 6.7 per season. The 2024 total is the primary driver of the upper end of his outcome band, which reaches 219.6 points at the 90th percentile.
The market is currently taking him at an average of pick 50.8, which is the 3rd pick of Round 5 in a 12-team draft. That is the price the market is setting; plan accordingly if he is on your list.
The 10th-percentile simulated season finishes at 67.0 half-PPR points. The 90th-percentile season finishes at 219.6 points. The median is 150.9 points. The 2025 line of 582 yards and 3 touchdowns on 60 targets illustrates the downside; the 2024 line of 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns illustrates the upside.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.