#54 overall · BUF · 143.2 projected half-PPR pts · +14.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 48.5
DJ Moore — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
DJ Moore brings a three-year track record of volume that is hard to dismiss. He has cleared 120 targets in two of the last three seasons, averaging 120.3 per year across that span, and his reception totals have been remarkably consistent: 96 in 2023, 98 in 2024, 50 in 2025. The catch rate and target share tell a story of a receiver who gets fed the ball. His 2023 season was a genuine WR1 campaign: 136 targets, 96 receptions, 1,364 receiving yards, and 8 receiving touchdowns. The 2024 line held up in volume terms, with 140 targets and 98 catches, even as yardage dipped to 966. The three-year average of 1,004 receiving yards and 6.7 receiving touchdowns per season anchors the floor. He also adds a modest but real rushing dimension, averaging 11 rush attempts and 58.3 rush yards per season over the same window, with a rushing touchdown in each of the last two years. Now in Buffalo, Moore lands in a new situation that the projection has already priced into its numbers.
What the model projects
The projection is 143.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That output produces a draft value of +14.0 points above replacement level at the wide receiver position, placing Moore at WR23 and #54 overall in Tier 7. The point estimate of 143.2 sits modestly below the median simulated season of 150.3, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution rather than any contradiction in the numbers. Both figures are worth keeping in mind: the projection is the headline, and the median simulated season is a separate data point from the band.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 136 | 96 | 1364 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 238.5 |
| 2024 | 140 | 98 | 966 | 6 | 14 | 75 | — | 1 | 187.1 |
| 2025 | 85 | 50 | 682 | 6 | 15 | 79 | 1 | — | 147.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 120.3 | 81.3 | 1004 | 6.7 | 11 | 58.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 192.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Moore's risk profile. In a bad season, the bottom 10 percent of simulated outcomes lands at 66.6 points. The 25th percentile is 106.7 points, still a meaningful step below replacement-level usefulness in most leagues. The median simulated season is 150.3 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 184.5 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reaches 219.2 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is more than 150 points, which is a wide spread for a receiver at this tier. The 2023 season, with 1,364 yards and 8 touchdowns, illustrates what the high end looks like in practice. The 2025 line, 682 yards and 50 receptions on 85 targets, illustrates the low end. Both are real possibilities, and the band reflects that honestly.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Moore is ranked #54 overall and WR23 in this projection set. His market ADP is 48.5, which works out to the 5th round, 1st pick in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him before the field does. His bye is Week 7, which is early enough to plan around without significant roster stress. At Tier 7, Moore sits in a group where the projection is positive relative to replacement level but the outcome band demands honest roster construction. Given the width of that band, pairing him with a more stable receiver elsewhere on your roster is a reasonable way to manage the variance.
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Questions drafters ask
Moore has seen 136, 140, and 85 targets over the last three seasons, for a three-year average of 120.3 per year. The volume is real and consistent in the two fuller seasons. The projection of 143.2 points sits within the range his target history has historically supported.
The band runs from 66.6 points at the 10th percentile to 219.2 at the 90th percentile. The 25th percentile is 106.7 points. That lower quartile represents a season where Moore delivers limited fantasy value, and the 2025 line of 682 yards and 50 receptions on 85 targets is a real-world reference point for what a low-end outcome looks like.
His market ADP is 48.5, which translates to the 5th round, 1st pick in a 12-team snake draft. That is the average pick at which he is currently coming off the board across two platforms, so plan to spend a pick in that range if you want him.
Yes, modestly. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 11 rush attempts, 58.3 rush yards, and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per year. He also recorded a passing touchdown in 2025. The rushing work adds a small but real floor to his half-PPR scoring in seasons where it shows up.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.