#202 overall · BUF · 64.4 projected half-PPR pts · -50.8 Draft Value
Keon Coleman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Keon Coleman has posted back-to-back seasons of 57 and 59 targets with Buffalo, and his three-year average sits at 58 targets per year. That target floor is real. He has also scored exactly 4 receiving touchdowns in each of his two NFL seasons, giving him a consistent red-zone presence that punches above what his raw yardage totals suggest. The 2025 season added a modest efficiency gain: 38 receptions on 59 targets compared to 29 on 57 the year before, a meaningful step in catch rate. For a drafter willing to roster a deep-bench flier late in a 2026 draft, Coleman offers a known role in a high-powered offense and a touchdown floor that has held steady across two years of data.
What the model projects
The projection is 64.4 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That sits at WR81 and #241 overall, placing Coleman in Tier 9. His draft value is -64.2, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. This is a depth-chart projection, not a featured-receiver one, and the numbers reflect that plainly.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 57 | 29 | 556 | 4 | 1 | 9 | — | 95.0 |
| 2025 | 59 | 38 | 404 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 81.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 58 | 33.5 | 480 | 4 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 89.2 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is the defining feature of Coleman's profile. The 10th-percentile simulated season produces just 5.6 points; the 25th percentile reaches only 21.2. The median simulated season lands at 45.6 points. The upside tail is more interesting: the 75th percentile is 79.9 points and the 90th percentile reaches 126.4. That gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial. The downside is severe and the median is modest, but the top-decile outcome is a genuinely usable fantasy season. Coleman is a high-variance asset, not a stable one.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Coleman does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to register a median pick. In a 12-team half-PPR league, he is a late-round stash at best, taken only after your roster's core is fully built. His bye is Week 7, worth noting for scheduling purposes. Given the negative draft value and the wide downside band, he belongs at the back end of a draft as a speculative hold on the 90th-percentile outcome, not as a player you reach for to secure.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
Coleman has seen 57 targets in 2024 and 59 in 2025. His three-year average is 58 targets per season, so the volume has been remarkably consistent even as his other numbers have shifted.
He has scored exactly 4 receiving touchdowns in each of his two NFL seasons, and his three-year average is also 4 per year. The projection does not guarantee that continues, but the historical consistency is notable.
The floor is steep: 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 5.6 points, and the median is only 45.6. The upside is real but requires things to break right: the 90th-percentile outcome is 126.4 points, and the 75th percentile reaches 79.9. He is a high-variance, low-floor asset.
He does not have a market ADP in public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to produce a median pick number. He is effectively undrafted in most leagues right now.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.