#124 overall · CLE · 95.1 projected half-PPR pts · -20.1 Draft Value
Jerry Jeudy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2024 season is the anchor. Jerry Jeudy caught 90 passes on 145 targets for 1,229 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, a genuine WR1-caliber workload by volume. That target share proved he can absorb a featured role in a passing offense, and the three-year average of 112.7 targets per season confirms he has been a high-volume option across multiple situations. His 2025 line of 50 receptions, 602 yards, and 2 touchdowns on 106 targets is a step back from that peak, but the target volume held. For a drafter hunting late-round upside, the 2024 ceiling is real and documented.
What the model projects
The projection is 104.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at WR55 and #132 overall, placing Jeudy in Tier 9. His draft value is -24.3, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is 104.3; the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 94.2, a modest gap that reflects the distribution of outcomes around the point estimate.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 87 | 54 | 758 | 2 | — | — | 1 | 114.8 |
| 2024 | 145 | 90 | 1229 | 4 | — | — | — | 191.9 |
| 2025 | 106 | 50 | 602 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 95.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 112.7 | 64.7 | 863 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 135.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 31.9 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 58.8 points, still a fringe-starter ceiling at best. The median sits at 94.2. Move to the optimistic side and the 75th percentile reaches 129.8 points, a serviceable weekly starter. The 90th-percentile outcome is 176.4 points, which would represent a season close to his 2024 production. The distance from p10 to p90 spans roughly 144 points, a band that reflects genuine season-to-season variance. Drafters should enter with eyes open: the floor is very low, and the upside, while real, requires the higher end of the distribution to materialize.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is placing Jeudy at an average draft position of 170.6, which works out to pick 15.03 in a 12-team draft. That is deep in the final rounds of a standard snake draft. The model has him at #132 overall and WR55. At his ADP, he is a late-round flier. His bye is Week 11, worth noting when building a roster around him. If you are targeting upside in the closing rounds, Jeudy's 2024 track record gives the 90th-percentile outcome (176.4 points) a factual foundation, even as the projection and the floor both counsel realistic expectations.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he caught 90 passes on 145 targets for 1,229 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. It matters as a ceiling reference: the 90th-percentile simulated outcome for 2026 is 176.4 points, and that 2024 workload is the factual basis for believing that ceiling is reachable rather than theoretical.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 31.9 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 58.8. The floor is genuinely low, and the wide band from p10 to p90 (31.9 to 176.4) signals that outcome variance is a central feature of drafting him.
The market ADP is 170.6, or pick 15.03 in a 12-team draft. That is a late-round, low-cost commitment. The model ranks him #132 overall and WR55 in Tier 9.
He drew 106 targets in 2025, down from 145 in 2024 but still a meaningful workload. The three-year average across 2023 through 2025 is 112.7 targets per season, so volume has been a consistent part of his profile even when the counting stats varied.
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Beyond the rankings
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