#92 overall · IND · 109.3 projected half-PPR pts · -6.0 Draft Value
Keenan Allen — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Keenan Allen has been one of the more durable route-runners in the league over the past three seasons, averaging 131 targets per year across 2023-2025. His 2023 season stands as the clearest evidence of his ceiling: 150 targets, 108 receptions, 1,243 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns. Even in the two seasons that followed, he cleared 120 targets each time and found the end zone 7 times in 2024. The target volume has been consistent. The touchdown production has been consistent. For a drafter willing to look past the projection and bet on a late-career floor, that track record is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 105.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Allen at #132 overall and WR55, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -24.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number reflects a step down from his three-year average production, and the negative draft value is the model's bottom line on where he stands relative to the positional baseline.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 150 | 108 | 1243 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 224.9 |
| 2024 | 121 | 70 | 744 | 7 | — | — | 1 | 150.4 |
| 2025 | 122 | 81 | 777 | 4 | — | — | 2 | 142.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 131 | 86.3 | 921.3 | 6 | 0.7 | 2 | 1.7 | 173.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Allen finishes at 32.7 points, a near-total non-factor. The 25th percentile comes in at 59.9 points, still well below replacement. The median simulated season lands at 95.5 points, slightly below the 105.2 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 131.1 points, and the 90th percentile tops out at 177.4 points. That upper tail is real: a strong season from Allen still looks like a productive fantasy contributor. The downside, however, is steep, and the bottom half of the band sits firmly in replacement-level or worse territory.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Allen at pick 160.8 on average, which works out to the 14th round, 5th pick in a 12-team draft. That is late-round territory, and the adp is based on a median across two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a precise number. Allen sits at #132 overall in the rankings. At his current market price, a drafter is spending a pick in the final rounds of a draft. Given the negative draft value and the wide downside band, he fits best as a depth add for a roster that already has its receiving corps set, with the 90th-percentile outcome as the reason to bother.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 131 targets per year across 2023-2025, with individual season totals of 150 (2023), 121 (2024), and 122 (2025). The volume has been one of the more consistent elements of his recent profile.
The projection is 105.2 half-PPR points. His draft value is -24.0, which places him below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #132 overall and WR55 in Tier 9. The numbers put him in the depth-add category rather than a core roster piece.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 32.7 points, and the 25th percentile is 59.9 points. One in four simulated seasons finishes at or below 59.9 points, which is well below replacement level. The downside is significant and should factor into any roster construction decision.
The market ADP is 160.8, which translates to the 14th round, 5th pick in a 12-team draft. That figure is drawn from two platforms, so it is a directional read on where he is going rather than a hard number. If you want him, a late-round pick is currently the price.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.